2026年02月04日申万期货品种策略日报-铂、钯：申万期货品种策略日报-铂、钯-20260204

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The report maintains a bullish outlook on platinum and palladium [4] 2. Core View of the Report - The long - term core logic for platinum and palladium remains unchanged, but short - term fluctuations are intensified due to technical corrections and Fed personnel changes. Despite short - term disturbances, the long - term bullish logic persists [4] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Futures Market - Platinum (pt2606, pt2608, pt2610): The current prices are 572.95, 563.10, and 557.85 respectively. The price increases are 19.60, 16.05, and 9.45, with corresponding increases of 3.54%, 2.93%, and 1.72%. The trading volumes are 27866, 1548, and 772, and the open interests are all 11507 [1] - Palladium (pd2606, pd2608, pd2610): The current prices are 450.55, 444.50, and 432.25 respectively. The price increases are 35.75, 31.85, and 24.15, with corresponding increases of 8.62%, 7.72%, and 5.92%. The trading volumes are 15449, 313, and 199, and the open interests are all 4112 [1] Spot Market - Platinum: The Shanghai platinum price increased by 50.39 to 566.81, with an increase of 0.098%. The London platinum price increased by 102.00 to 2247.00, with an increase of 0.048%. The prices of Zhou Dafu and Lao Fengxiang platinum are 870.00 and 960.00 respectively, with increases of 46.00 and 0.00, and increases of 0.056% and 0.000% [1] - Palladium: The Chinese palladium price increased by 10.00 to 425.00, with an increase of 0.024%. The Russian palladium price decreased by 173.15 to 4333.76, with a decrease of 0.038% [1] Inventory - Platinum: The NYMEX inventory decreased by 49923.2 ounces to 605258.93 ounces, and the registered warehouse receipts decreased by 11451.9 ounces to 326637.95 ounces. The trading volume on the Gold Exchange increased by 323.2 ten - thousand yuan to 6991.16 ten - thousand yuan, and the trading volume increased by 2.0 kilograms to 124.00 kilograms [1] - Palladium: The NYMEX inventory decreased by 15565.3 ounces to 208455.89 ounces, and the registered warehouse receipts remained unchanged at 142716.91 ounces [1] Related Derivatives - The current values of platinum/palladium, Shanghai platinum/London platinum, pt2608 - pt2606, pt2610 - pt2606, Chinese palladium/Russian palladium, and pd2608 - pd2606 are 1.33, 1.09, - 9.85, - 15.10, 1.07, and - 6.05 respectively, with corresponding previous values of 5.04, 2.13, - 6.80, - 3.95, - 0.63, and - 3.10 [1] - For related derivatives such as Shanghai Gold and Shanghai Silver, the current prices, previous closing prices, and price changes are provided, for example, the current price of Shanghai Gold 2604 is 1093.78, with an increase of 85.18 compared to the previous closing price [1] Macroeconomic News - The Fed maintains the benchmark interest rate at 3.50% - 3.75%, pausing after three consecutive 25 - basis - point interest rate cuts, which is in line with market expectations. Fed Chair candidate Waller supports a 25 - basis - point interest rate cut, consistent with Trump - nominated director Milan's position [2] - Trump nominates former Fed governor Kevin Warsh as the next Fed chair, but the nomination needs Senate approval. Some senators oppose the nomination [2] - In January 2026, China's manufacturing market demand tightened, but production expanded, and the industrial structure continued to optimize. The manufacturing PMI was 49.3%, a decrease of 0.8 percentage points from the previous month. The PMIs of the equipment manufacturing and high - tech manufacturing industries were 50.1% and 52% respectively, showing stable and positive development [2] - The People's Bank of China requires promoting the high - quality development of the modern payment system in 2026, including accelerating the construction of the RMB cross - border payment system, strengthening regulatory measures, and improving service quality [3] Comments and Strategies - The short - term decline in platinum and palladium prices is mainly due to Trump's nomination of Kevin Warsh. The market short - term monetary policy expectations are in a state of continuous game. In the long - term, there are still many positive factors, such as the weakening of the US dollar's credit, the continuous gold - buying spree of global central banks, and the clear supply - demand gap in the platinum and palladium industries [4]