20260204申万期货品种策略日报-软商品-20260204

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The overall surplus pattern of white sugar remains unchanged, and it is expected to maintain a volatile trend in the short - term. With the peak crushing period of southern sugar mills, the seasonal increase in sugar supply and import exceeding market expectations, along with weak spot prices and no improvement in pre - holiday consumption, it is expected to remain at a low level in the short - term [4]. - The panic in the cotton market has basically subsided, and sentiment recovery has led to a decline in Zhengzhou cotton. As the Spring Festival approaches, the operating rate is decreasing, and the restocking of textile mills is coming to an end. It is expected that the short - term demand support will be relatively limited [4]. 3. Summary According to Related Catalogs Futures Market - Price and Volume Information: For domestic white sugar futures contracts (2609, 2605, 2603), the previous day's closing prices were 5177, 5167, and 5182 respectively, with price drops of - 45, - 40, - 43 and declines of - 0.86%, - 0.77%, - 0.82%. For 11 - sugar futures contracts (2603, 2607, 2605), the previous day's closing prices were 14.63, 14.15, 14.47 respectively, with price increases of 0.37, 0.36, 0.34 and increases of 2.59%, 2.61%, 2.41%. The trading volumes of domestic white sugar futures were 39742, 284324, 9511 respectively, and the trading volumes of 11 - sugar futures were 102353, 27862, 15645 respectively [1]. - Position and Price Difference: The position changes of domestic white sugar futures contracts (2609, 2605, 2603) were 4915, 10416, - 2802 respectively, while those of 11 - sugar futures contracts (2603, 2607, 2605) were - 3709, 6845, 3950 respectively. The current value of SR2605 - SR2509 is - 15, and the previous value was - 18 [1]. Spot Market - White Sugar Spot Price: The current spot prices of white sugar in Liuzhou and Kunming are 5360 and 5160 respectively. Compared with the previous values, the Liuzhou price remained unchanged, and the Kunming price decreased by 15 [1]. - White Sugar Import Price: The current import prices of Brazilian sugar within and outside the quota are 3331 and 4239 respectively, and those of Thai sugar are 3847 and 4912 respectively. Compared with the previous values, the prices of Brazilian and Thai sugar within and outside the quota all decreased [1]. Inventory and Position - The current value of white sugar warehouse receipts and effective forecasts are 14216 and 489 respectively, with a total of 14705, an increase compared to the previous value. The non - commercial long and short positions of ICE 11 - sugar are 153423 and 321176 respectively, and the long - to - short ratio is 0.48, also higher than the previous value [1]. Industry Information - Production in Xinjiang: In the 25/26 sugar - making season, except for 3 sugar mills that stopped production in December, no sugar mills in Xinjiang have stopped production in January. After February 10, most sugar mills are expected to stop production one after another. The estimated sugar production in Xinjiang remains at 760,000 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 50,000 tons [2]. - Global Sugar Supply and Demand: In the 2026/27 season, the global sugar surplus is expected to shrink to 1.4 million tons, lower than the 4.7 million tons in the 2025/26 season. Global production is expected to drop by 1.3% to 191.6 million tons, while consumption is expected to increase by 0.5% to 190.3 million tons [2]. - Hedging in Brazil: Brazilian sugar cane processors are seriously behind in hedging for the 2026/27 season starting in April. Due to the current sugar price being lower than the production cost in the central - southern region, they may focus more on ethanol production. As of now, Brazilian sugar mills have only hedged a little over 20% of their expected raw sugar sales volume through short positions on the ICE, compared with over 40% in the same period last year and nearly 70% two years ago [2]. - Production in Brazil's Central - Southern Region: As of the end of December, the sugar cane crushing volume in the 2025/26 season in Brazil's central - southern region reached 600.4 million tons, only 2.3% less than the same period in the previous season. The predicted sugar cane crushing volume for the whole season is 610.5 million tons considering the early resumption of crushing operations. The sugar production ratio is adjusted from 51.2% to 50.7%, and the sugar output per ton of sugar cane is adjusted from 137.94 kg/ton to 138.11 kg/ton. The sugar production forecast is adjusted from 40.86 million tons to 40.77 million tons, while the total ethanol production forecast is raised from 33.79 billion liters to 34.15 billion liters [3].