20260204申万期货品种策略日报-聚烯烃（LL&PP）-20260204

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided Group 2: Core View of the Report - Polyolefin futures are trading in a consolidation phase. For linear LL, prices from Sinopec and PetroChina remain stable. For拉丝PP, Sinopec's prices are stable, while PetroChina has lowered some prices by 50. The market currently focuses on the expectation of supply improvement, and the impact of macro factors on commodities has increased. With the recent decline in oil prices, polyolefin market is gradually cooling down. Overall, the current driving force of polyolefin spot is relatively limited, and the market pays more attention to the driving rhythm of macro factors [2] Group 3: Summary Based on Related Catalogs Futures Market - LL Futures: On the previous day, the closing prices of January, May, and September contracts were 6912, 6865, and 6916 respectively. Compared with two days ago, the price changes were 1, -13, and -3, with percentage changes of 0.01%, -0.19%, and -0.04%. The trading volumes were 104, 542177, and 29232, and the open interests were 615, 511685, and 70967, with changes of 24, 15259, and -102. The spreads of January - May, May - September, and September - January were 47, -51, and 4, compared with 33, -41, and 8 previously [2] - PP Futures: On the previous day, the closing prices of January, May, and September contracts were 6706, 6730, and 6757 respectively. Compared with two days ago, the price changes were 38, 16, and 17, with percentage changes of 0.57%, 0.24%, and 0.25%. The trading volumes were 353, 413952, and 28861, and the open interests were 2463, 509892, and 110586, with changes of -85, 229, and 603. The spreads of January - May, May - September, and September - January were -24, -27, and 51, compared with -46, -26, and 72 previously [2] Raw Materials and Spot Market - Raw Materials: The current prices of methanol futures, Shandong propylene, South China propane, PP recycled materials, North China powder, and mulch film are 2254 yuan/ton, 6420 yuan/ton, 607 dollars/ton, 5600 yuan/ton, 6530 yuan/ton, and 8700 yuan/ton respectively. Compared with the previous values, the prices of methanol futures, Shandong propylene, and South China propane have changed, while the prices of PP recycled materials, North China powder, and mulch film remain the same [2] - Mid - stream Spot Market: The current price ranges of LL in the East China, North China, and South China markets are 6900 - 7250, 6700 - 7050, and 6950 - 7250 respectively. The current price ranges of PP in the East China, North China, and South China markets are 6550 - 6700, 6600 - 6650, and 6650 - 6850 respectively. Compared with the previous values, the price ranges of LL and PP in most markets remain the same, except for an additional high - price range of 8100 - 8250 in the North China market for LL previously [2] News - On Tuesday (February 3), the settlement price of West Texas Intermediate crude oil futures for March 2026 on the New York Mercantile Exchange was $63.21 per barrel, up $1.07 or 1.72% from the previous trading day, with a trading range of $61.12 - $64.21. The settlement price of Brent crude oil futures for April 2026 on the London Intercontinental Exchange was $67.33 per barrel, up $1.03 or 1.55% from the previous trading day, with a trading range of $65.19 - $68.27 [2]