橡胶：震荡偏强20260204

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment rating for the rubber industry is "shockingly strong" [1] Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - The rubber market shows a shockingly strong trend, with a trend strength of 1. In January, the all-steel tire industry was in a seasonal off - peak season, facing triple pressures from cost, demand, and inventory. In February, affected by the Spring Festival, the industry will enter a phased production suspension or limitation period. The market will show a trend of being quiet first and then stabilizing, with the focus on inventory reduction. Substantial improvement is expected in March [1][2][3] Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalogs Fundamental Tracking - Futures Market: The daily - closing price of the rubber main contract (05) was 16,180 yuan/ton, up 200 yuan from the previous day; the night - closing price was 16,310 yuan/ton, up 220 yuan. The trading volume was 254,278 lots, a decrease of 176,248 lots; the open interest was 153,505 lots, a decrease of 2,489 lots. The number of warehouse receipts remained unchanged at 110,870 tons, and the net short position of the top 20 members increased by 1,704 lots [1] - Spread Data: The basis of "spot - futures main" remained at - 180, the spread of "mixed - futures main" decreased by 70 to - 1,050, and the monthly spread of "RU05 - RU09" remained at 130 [1] - Spot Market: In the external market quotes, RSS3 increased by 10 to 2,190 US dollars/ton, STR20 increased by 15 to 1,960 US dollars/ton, SMR20 increased by 15 to 1,950 US dollars/ton, and SIR20 increased by 30 to 1,880 US dollars/ton. Among the substitutes, the price of Qilu styrene - butadiene rubber remained at 13,200 yuan/ton, and Qilu cis - butadiene rubber increased by 50 to 12,800 yuan/ton. In the Qingdao market, the price of Thai standard rubber decreased by 25 US dollars/ton, and Thai mixed rubber also decreased by 25 US dollars/ton. The price of African 10 decreased by 15/10 US dollars/ton [1] Industry News - In January, the all - steel tire industry was in a seasonal off - peak season. The prices of natural rubber, synthetic rubber, carbon black, and additives rebounded, driving up the raw material cost index by over 5%. The cost pressure was difficult to transfer downstream, and the profit margin continued to narrow. The promotion effect was poor, and the terminal replacement demand was further weakened. In February, affected by the Spring Festival, the industry will have a phased production suspension or limitation. The market will be quiet before the festival and gradually recover after the festival, and the mainstream price will likely remain stable. The industry's focus is on inventory reduction, and the substantial improvement will wait until the peak production season in March [2][3]