20260204申万期货品种策略日报：原油甲醇-20260204

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - SC crude oil futures rose 1.78% overnight, affected by geopolitical events such as the US shooting down an Iranian drone and an Iranian gunboat approaching a US - flagged tanker, while the sharp increase in Venezuelan crude oil exports to the US increased concerns about oversupply and pressured oil prices [3] - Methanol futures fell 0.31% overnight. The average operating load of domestic coal - to - olefins (methanol) plants decreased slightly. Coastal methanol inventories decreased slightly but were still at a relatively high historical level, and the expected arrival of imported ships in the future was relatively large [3] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Futures Market - Price and Volume Information: For SC crude oil, the near - month contract had a previous day closing price of 449.4, a rise of 0.4 (0.09%), with a trading volume of 119,915 and a position of 32,924 (a decrease of 3,276). For WTI, the near - month contract had a previous day closing price of 65.51, a rise of 2.01 (3.17%), with a trading volume of 329,531 and a position of 368,969 (an increase of 4,711). For Brent, the near - month contract had a previous day closing price of 68.74, a rise of 1.04 (1.54%), with a trading volume of 167,809 and a position of 242,672 (a decrease of 63,201) [2] - Spread Information: The current value of the spread between SC near - month and SC next - month contracts was - 3.5 yuan/barrel, compared with a previous value of - 1.2 yuan/barrel [2] Spot Market - International Market: The current values of OPEC's basket of crude oil price, Brent DTD, Russian ESPD, Oman, Dubai, and Cinta were 64.94, 69.20, 62.14, 65.43, 65.42, and 61.25 respectively, all showing a decline compared to the previous values [2] - Domestic Market: The current values of Daqing and Shengli crude oil were 63.38 and 62.21 respectively, showing a decline compared to the previous values. The Chinese gasoline wholesale price index remained at 7,423 yuan/ton, and the Chinese diesel wholesale price index decreased to 6,122 yuan/ton from 6,133 yuan/ton [2] Crude Oil - Price Movement: SC crude oil futures rose 1.78% overnight [3] - Influencing Factors: Geopolitical events such as the US shooting down an Iranian drone and an Iranian gunboat approaching a US - flagged tanker increased market tension. However, the sharp increase in Venezuelan crude oil exports to the US increased concerns about oversupply and pressured oil prices [3] Methanol - Price Movement: Methanol futures fell 0.31% overnight [3] - Supply - related Information: The average operating load of domestic coal (methanol) to olefins plants was 80.06%, a decrease of 0.13 percentage points from the previous period. As of January 29, coastal methanol inventories were 143 tons, a decrease of 0.47 tons (0.33%) from January 22, and an increase of 42.43% year - on - year. The estimated arrival volume of imported ships from January 30 to February 15 was 59.3 - 60 tons. The overall operating load of domestic methanol plants was 77.56%, an increase of 0.15 percentage points from the previous period and 0.75 percentage points higher than the same period last year [3]