20260204申万期货有色金属基差日报-20260204

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Viewpoints - The copper price rose 0.65% overnight. The concentrate supply remains tight, and smelting profits are on the verge of profit and loss. Although the smelting output decreased month - on - month, it continued to grow overall. The copper price may enter an adjustment phase in the short term [2]. - The zinc price fell 0.62% overnight. The zinc concentrate processing fee declined, the concentrate supply was temporarily tight, and the smelting output continued to grow. The zinc price may follow the overall trend of non - ferrous metals [2]. Summary According to the Catalog Price and Market Information - Copper: The previous domestic futures closing price was 104,140 yuan/ton, the domestic basis was - 175 yuan/ton, the previous LME 3 - month closing price was 13,410 dollars/ton, the LME spot premium was - 64.25 dollars/ton, the LME inventory was 174,675 tons, and the daily change was - 300 tons [2]. - Aluminum: The previous domestic futures closing price was 23,725 yuan/ton, the domestic basis was - 220 yuan/ton, the previous LME 3 - month closing price was 3,099 dollars/ton, the LME spot premium was - 22.59 dollars/ton, the LME inventory was 497,175 tons, and the daily change was 1,450 tons [2]. - Zinc: The previous domestic futures closing price was 24,915 yuan/ton, the domestic basis was - 85 yuan/ton, the previous LME 3 - month closing price was 3,323 dollars/ton, the LME spot premium was - 22.89 dollars/ton, the LME inventory was 109,100 tons, and the daily change was - 900 tons [2]. - Nickel: The previous domestic futures closing price was 134,120 yuan/ton, the domestic basis was - 6,670 yuan/ton, the previous LME 3 - month closing price was 17,395 dollars/ton, the LME spot premium was - 216.92 dollars/ton, the LME inventory was 285,528 tons, and the daily change was - 756 tons [2]. - Lead: The previous domestic futures closing price was 16,560 yuan/ton, the domestic basis was - 145 yuan/ton, the previous LME 3 - month closing price was 1,962 dollars/ton, the LME spot premium was - 49.63 dollars/ton, the LME inventory was 204,075 tons, and the daily change was - 1,500 tons [2]. - Tin: The previous domestic futures closing price was 382,460 yuan/ton, the domestic basis was 4,290 yuan/ton, the previous LME 3 - month closing price was 50,295 dollars/ton, the LME spot premium was - 241.04 dollars/ton, the LME inventory was 7,105 tons, and the daily change was 10 tons [2]. Downstream Demand - For copper and zinc, power investment is stable, automobile production and sales are growing positively, home appliance production scheduling is in negative growth, and the real estate market remains weak. The infrastructure investment cumulative growth rate for zinc is slowing down, and the galvanized sheet inventory is generally at a high level [2].