铝锭：情绪有所缓和，警惕宏观扰动，成材：重心下移偏弱运行

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core Views - The price of finished products is expected to move in a range-bound manner, with its center of gravity shifting downwards and showing a weak performance [1][3] - The price of aluminum ingots is expected to fluctuate in the short term, and attention should be paid to macro - sentiment [4] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Finished Products - Yunnan - Guizhou short - process construction steel enterprises are expected to stop production from mid - January and resume around the 11th to 16th day of the first lunar month, affecting a total of 741,000 tons of construction steel production [2] - Six short - process steel mills in Anhui: one stopped production on January 5, most will stop around mid - January, and a few after January 20, with a daily output impact of about 16,200 tons [3] - From December 30, 2024, to January 5, 2025, the total transaction area of newly built commercial housing in 10 key cities was 2.234 million square meters, a 40.3% decrease from the previous period and a 43.2% increase year - on - year [3] - With the pattern of weak supply and demand and pessimistic market sentiment, the price of finished products continued to decline, hitting a new low recently, and winter storage was sluggish, providing weak price support [3] Aluminum Ingots - Yesterday, Shanghai Aluminum adjusted weakly, and the sentiment eased. The weakening of the US dollar and concerns about the US government shutdown, as well as the short - term escalation of the US - Iran confrontation, affected the market [2] - The domestic central bank will conduct 800 billion yuan of outright reverse repurchase operations on February 4 to maintain liquidity in the banking system [2] - In the domestic bauxite market, Shanxi's domestic bauxite is actively resuming production, with sufficient supply and downward - pressured prices. For imported ore, the intended transaction price has decreased, and the market is quiet, with alumina plants being cautious in procurement [3] - In January, domestic electrolytic aluminum production increased by 2.7% year - on - year and 0.5% month - on - month. In February, production is expected to decrease month - on - month due to fewer natural days, and some new projects are expected to be put into production stably [3] - As the Spring Festival approaches, the downstream demand for raw materials weakens, and the aluminum water ratio is expected to drop significantly. The overall aluminum processing operating rate shows a "seasonal decline acceleration and high - price suppression effect deepening" feature, and it is expected to decline further before the Spring Festival [3] - As of January 29, the social inventory of aluminum ingots reached 782,000 tons, an increase of 330,000 tons compared to the same period in 2025. With the price decline, the downstream situation is expected to remain weak [3] - The short - term market sentiment has eased, but the linkage between precious metals and the non - ferrous sector is strong, and the market trading sentiment is cautious. Attention should be paid to the risks of sentiment cooling and market correction [4]