集运欧线数据日报-20260204

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided on the industry investment rating. 2. Core Viewpoints - The spot freight rate for the European container shipping route is expected to continue declining before the Spring Festival. The average price of 40 - foot containers in the third week of February will drop to around $2080. There is currently a discount of about 200 - 300 points in the market. With a deep discount and strong expectations, there is relatively little room for real - level gaming, and the focus is more on the expected - level gaming [1]. - The market is highly correlated with the sentiment of the commodity market recently. Attention should be paid to the intraday impact of commodity sentiment on the EC. The main event at the expected level is the pre - April 1 export rush of products such as photovoltaic. It may bring the cargo volume equivalent to about 2 container ships of 18,000 - 23,000 TEU, which is unlikely to cause full - load cabins in the post - holiday off - season but may lead to price increases by shipping companies, price stabilization, or even a slight upward trend in freight rates. Attention should be paid to the release of shipping companies' price increase notices and the possible falsification of expectations [1]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs EC Contract Volume and Price - EC2602: The latest trading price is 1737.8 points, with a daily increase of 1.15%. The trading volume is 612 (a decrease of 318 compared to the previous period), and the open interest on one side is 1883 (a decrease of 456 compared to the previous period). The net long position of the top 20 members is - 205 [2]. - EC2604: The latest trading price is 1237.9 points, with a daily increase of 5.22%. The trading volume is 29296 (a decrease of 3522 compared to the previous period), and the open interest on one side is 34229 (an increase of 423 compared to the previous period). The net long position of the top 20 members is - 1655 [2]. - EC2606: The latest trading price is 1533.7 points, with a daily increase of 2.57%. The trading volume is 3147 (a decrease of 2797 compared to the previous period), and the open interest on one side is 13458 (an increase of 860 compared to the previous period). The net long position of the top 20 members is 0 [2]. - EC2608: The latest trading price is 1597.9 points, with a daily increase of 1.32%. The trading volume is 353 (a decrease of 778 compared to the previous period), and the open interest on one side is 1479 (an increase of 29 compared to the previous period) [2]. - EC2610: The latest trading price is 1128.6 points, with a daily increase of 1.37%. The trading volume is 1355 (a decrease of 1149 compared to the previous period), and the open interest on one side is 7677 (a decrease of 207 compared to the previous period) [2]. - EC2612: The latest trading price is 1439 points, with a daily increase of 3.18%. The trading volume is 29 (a decrease of 11 compared to the previous period), and the open interest on one side is 128 (an increase of 7 compared to the previous period) [2]. - Total: The total trading volume is 34792, and the total open interest on one side is 58854. The net long position of the top 20 members is - 1860 [2]. Latest Spot Freight Rates - European Routes - Weekly Spot Index: The SCFIS is 1792.14 points, with a week - on - week decrease of 3.6%. The SCFI is $1418/TEU, with a week - on - week decrease of 4.8% [4]. - Daily Spot Freight Rates: The TCI (20GP) is $1604/TEU, with a day - on - day decrease of 3.3%. The TCI (40GP) is $2725/FEU, with a day - on - day decrease of 2.4% [4]. Basis Spread - The basis of the previous trading day was 554.24 points, and the basis of the day before the previous trading day was 607.54 points, with a change of - 53.3 points [6].