日度策略参考-20260204

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - Bullish: Precious metals (gold, silver), platinum, palladium, palm oil, ethylene glycol, styrene, PE [1] - Bearish: Steel (rebar, hot - rolled coil), iron ore, soybean meal, SHK, caustic soda [1] - Neutral: Industrial silicon, polycrystalline silicon, lithium carbonate, glass, soda ash, coking coal, coke, rapeseed oil, cotton, sugar, grains, pulp, BR rubber, urea, methanol, PVC, LPG, container shipping [1] 2. Core Views - In the short - term, attention should be paid to whether the panic caused by overseas liquidity tightening can be effectively alleviated. After a shrinking - volume rebound, the stock index is expected to consolidate through oscillations. In the long - run, the upward trend of the stock index is not expected to end due to abundant domestic market funds and the economy in the bottom - building process [1] - The "asset shortage" and weak economy are beneficial for bond futures, but the central bank has recently warned of interest - rate risks, and attention should be paid to the Bank of Japan's interest - rate decision [1] - After the release of macro - negative factors, the sentiment has recovered. However, supply concerns in the non - ferrous metal market may continue to disrupt the market, and different non - ferrous metals have different price trends and investment suggestions [1] - For agricultural products, different products have different supply - demand situations and price trends, and factors such as policies, weather, and demand seasons need to be considered [1] - In the energy and chemical sectors, factors such as geopolitical situations, supply - demand relationships, and cost changes affect product prices and investment decisions [1] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Macro - finance - Stock index: Short - term attention to overseas liquidity panic, long - term upward trend remains [1] - Treasury bonds: Asset shortage and weak economy are beneficial, but short - term interest - rate risks are warned, and focus on the Bank of Japan's decision [1] Non - ferrous metals - Copper: After the release of macro risks, the price is expected to stabilize and rebound [1] - Aluminum: After the release of risks, the price is expected to stabilize and rebound [1] - Alumina: Supply is strong and demand is weak, and the price is expected to oscillate [1] - Zinc: The cost center is stable, and the price is expected to rebound after a correction. It is recommended to wait and see [1] - Nickel: Short - term price stabilizes and rebounds, affected by the non - ferrous sector. Pay attention to Indonesian policies and macro - sentiment. Long - term high global nickel inventory may have a suppressing effect [1] - Stainless steel: The raw material end has support, and the futures price oscillates. It is recommended to focus on short - term trading [1] - Tin: After a strong rebound, pay attention to risk management in the short - term high - volatility situation [1] Precious metals and new energy - Gold, silver: After the liquidity problem is alleviated, they are expected to gradually repair and run strongly [1] - Platinum, palladium: There is short - term support and are expected to gradually stabilize and rebound [1] - Industrial silicon: Northwest production increases, southwest production decreases, and the production of polysilicon and organic silicon in December decreases [1] - Polysilicon: Wait and see due to liquidity risks [1] - Lithium carbonate: In the off - season of new energy vehicles, but with strong energy - storage demand and battery export rush. There is a need for a correction after a large increase [1] Ferrous metals - Rebar, hot - rolled coil: The expectation is strong, but the spot is weak, and the upward momentum is insufficient. It is recommended to exit long positions and participate in cash - and - carry arbitrage [1] - Iron ore: There is obvious upward pressure, and it is not recommended to chase long positions [1] - Coke, coking coal: The market is pessimistic about the coking coal 05 contract. After the first round of coke price increase is shelved, the price may gradually move towards the Mongolian coal long - term agreement cost [1] Agricultural products - Palm oil: Expected to oscillate strongly with the start of purchasing in major consuming countries and possible production reduction and inventory depletion in the producing areas [1] - Rapeseed oil: There is a risk of short - term correction due to the approaching end of pre - festival stocking and macro - sentiment [1] - Cotton: Currently in a situation of "support but no driver". Pay attention to policies, planting intentions, and seasonal demand [1] - Sugar: There is a global surplus and an increase in domestic new - crop supply. The short - side consensus is strong, and pay attention to the change of capital [1] - Grains: Before the festival, the upward momentum is insufficient, and it is expected to oscillate and correct. Pay attention to the short - term selling pressure [1] - Soybean meal: Expected to oscillate weakly [1] - Pulp: With disturbances on the supply side and weakening demand after restocking, it is recommended to wait and see [1] - Logs: The spot price rises, and the futures price has an upward driving force [1] - Pigs: The spot price is gradually stabilizing, and the production capacity needs to be further released [1] Energy - Crude oil: OPEC+ suspends production increase until the end of 2026, and the geopolitical situation in the Middle East may ease. The commodity market sentiment cools down [1] - Bitumen: Follows crude oil in the short - term, the "14th Five - Year Plan" construction demand is likely to be falsified, and the profit is high [1] - SHK: There is strong raw - material cost support, the commodity market sentiment turns bearish, the pre - festival downstream demand weakens, and the futures - spot price difference expands [1] Chemicals - BR rubber: The cost end has support, the short - term downstream negative feedback is realized, and the inventory is decreasing. The short - term price is expected to oscillate widely, and there is an upward expectation in the long - term [1] - PTA: Driven by the strong PX market, the chemical sector has a large inflow of funds, and the polyester leads the rise. The domestic PTA production increases, and the negative feedback from polyester factory production reduction is limited [1] - Ethylene glycol: The price rebounds after a long - term slump, and the reduction of Middle East exports boosts market confidence. There is an increase in speculative demand [1] - Short - fiber: The price closely follows the cost [1] - Styrene: The price rebounds rapidly with the improvement of the supply - demand fundamentals, and the inventory is decreasing [1] - Urea: The export sentiment eases, the domestic demand is insufficient, and there is support from anti - involution and the cost end [1] - Methanol: Affected by the Iranian situation, the import is expected to decrease, but the downstream negative feedback is obvious. There are multiple factors in a tug - of - war [1] - PE: There is a risk of crude oil price increase due to intensified geopolitical conflicts, and the linear production ratio decreases [1] - PVC: The global production capacity expansion is limited in 2026, but the fundamentals are poor. There may be a rush for exports, and the production capacity may be cleared [1] - Caustic soda: The macro - sentiment fades, the fundamentals are weak, and the factory inventory is increasing, with downward pressure on the spot price [1] - LPG: The CP price rises in February, the risk premium in the Middle East decreases, the overseas cold - wave driving logic slows down, the demand is short - term bearish, and the basis is expected to expand [1] - Container shipping: The pre - festival freight rate peaks and falls, the airlines are cautious about resuming flights, and there is a strong willingness to stop the price decline and raise prices after the off - season in March [1]