航运衍生品数据日报-20260204

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core Viewpoints - The market's collective forecast probability of a military strike has slightly declined as the US and Iran are sending mixed signals. Iran's senior officials said that efforts to start negotiations with the US are making progress, and the US is unlikely to conduct an air strike on Iran in the near term as it is still deploying air - defense capabilities in the region. The "Lincoln" aircraft carrier has left the Oman Sea and entered the Indian Ocean [5]. - The container shipping market shows an oscillating trend. The container shipping European route EC spot - futures market rebounded, mainly due to the unexpectedly narrowed decline of the SCFIS index and the recovery of the commodity market atmosphere. The futures main contract EC2604 oscillated and rebounded, with a closing increase of 5.22% and a clear short - term repair trend but restricted by post - festival expectations. The spot market lacks a clear main line, and post - festival pressure is prominent, with freight rates possibly falling below $2000 [7]. - The short - term cost - effectiveness of short - selling is reduced. Attention should be paid to going long on contract 06 at low levels and short - selling contract 10 during the off - season when it rebounds [8]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Shipping Derivatives Data - Container Shipping Freight Index: The current values of Shanghai Export Container Freight Composite Index (SCFI), China Export Container Freight Index (CCFI), SCFI - US West, SCFIS - US West, SCFI - US East, SCFI - Northwest Europe, SCFIS - Northwest Europe, and SCFI - Mediterranean are 1317, 1176, 1867, 1101, 2605, 1418, 1792, and 2424 respectively. The previous values are 1458, 1209, 2084, 1294, 2896, 1595, 1859, and 2756 respectively. The corresponding percentage changes are - 9.68%, - 2.74%, - 10.41%, - 14.91%, - 10.05%, - 11.10%, - 3.60%, and - 12.05% [4]. Market Situation and Freight Price - Market Situation: The market shows an oscillating trend. The container shipping European route EC spot - futures market rebounded after a significant decline the previous day, with strong spot - futures linkage. The futures main contract EC2604 oscillated and rebounded, closing up 5.22% at 1220.8 points, with a maximum of 1254.0 points and a minimum of 1186.0 points, and a trading volume of 29296 lots. The far - month contracts also rose slightly by 1 - 3% [7]. - Freight Price: The freight price shows a pre - festival decline. Different alliances have different adjustments. For example, in the GEMINI alliance, Maersk's opening price in WK6 dropped to $2000 - 2100/FEU and further to $1995/FEU in WK7, while Hapag - Lloyd maintained $2300 - 2500/FEU in WK6 and remained stable in WK7. In the OA alliance, the price in WK6 dropped slightly to around $2500/FBU, and in WK7, COSCO Shipping in North China ports adjusted to $2200 - 2300/FEU, with East China ports likely to follow. In the PA alliance, the price fluctuated between $2200 - 2400/FEU in WK6, and in WK7, affected by ONE's WK8 list price of $2000/FEU, the average price approached $2000/FEU, with some volume - special prices at $1800/FEU. The NSC also adjusted slightly downward following the market rhythm [7].