中辉农产品观点-20260204

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - Soybean Meal: Short - term decline. Brazil is in the early stage of soybean harvest, with expected record - high production. US soybeans fell due to export decline expectations, and domestic soybean meal continued to decline with inventory accumulation. However, the spot price rose slightly, and the basis strengthened. Be cautious about further shorting, and pay attention to February rainfall in Argentine soybean regions [1][4]. - Rapeseed Meal: Short - term adjustment. The entry of the first batch of Australian rapeseeds into crushing and stable Sino - Canadian trade reduced market bullish sentiment. Coastal oil mill rapeseed meal inventory broke the previous zero state, and the decline in soybean meal further expanded the decline of rapeseed meal. It shows a second - dip trend in the short term. Focus on subsequent rapeseed procurement and US - Canada trade progress [1][7]. - Palm Oil: Short - term adjustment. Indonesia's plan to ban the export of used cooking oil and palm waste supported palm oil prices, but the January Malaysian palm oil export data was average, with a risk of inventory accumulation in January. Be cautious about going long, and pay attention to January Malaysian palm oil inventory estimates and the US - Iran situation [1][9]. - Soybean Oil: Short - term adjustment. Brazil's soybean harvest is in the early stage, with expected production increase, which is bearish for the market. Coupled with the weakening of crude oil, soybean oil continued to decline slightly. Pay attention to the Malaysian palm oil situation and Argentine weather [1]. - Rapeseed Oil: Short - term adjustment. The crushing of Australian rapeseeds in China alleviated the tight supply in South China, but downstream demand has not improved significantly, and the basis has weakened. The Sino - Canadian rapeseed trade policy is unclear. Rapeseed oil futures prices rebounded slightly following palm oil. Focus on rapeseed imports and US - Canada trade progress [1]. - Cotton: Oscillatory adjustment. The US cotton market declined due to external commodities and a stronger US dollar. It has been in low - level consolidation since 2025, and the new - cotton narrative in 2026 is expected to start after the first quarter. In China, new - cotton processing is basically completed, and raw - material inventory is being depleted at a moderate pace. The import side faces price - difference pressure, and domestic demand is in a weakening stage. In the short term, the upward drive is weak, but there is a strong expectation in the medium - long term. Continuously monitor the linkage between domestic and foreign cotton and the inventory depletion situation in the first half of the year [1][13]. - Red Dates: Under pressure. Spot performance is flat. With the peak of new - product listing and the arrival of the consumption peak season, futures price fluctuations increase. High inventory depletion is accelerating, which may drive a short - term rebound. However, in a supply - demand loose pattern, the overall trend is expected to be bearish with occasional rebounds. Pay attention to short - term rebound opportunities during the cold - season peak [1][16]. - Hogs: Oscillatory and weakening. In the context of high supply and demand in February, there may be short - term price rebounds in some regions, but they lack a sustainable basis. Near - month contracts are prone to decline due to weak supply - demand and delivery logic, so pay attention to low - level risk control. Far - month contracts lack a basis for upward trend due to poor capacity reduction. Focus on short - term long - allocation and rebound opportunities [1][18]. 3. Summaries According to Related Catalogs Soybean Meal - Market Situation: The futures price of the main contract closed at 2727 yuan/ton, down 0.84% from the previous day. The national average spot price was 3168.57 yuan/ton, down 0.42%. The soybean crushing profit decreased, and the basis strengthened. The export decline expectation led to a fall in US soybeans, and domestic inventory accumulation pressured the market [2][4]. - Brazilian Situation: As of last Thursday, Brazilian farmers had completed 10% of the 2025/26 soybean harvest area, 5 percentage points higher than the previous week and higher than last year's 9%. Multiple institutions predict record - high Brazilian soybean production in 2025/26 [3]. Rapeseed Meal - Market Situation: The futures price of the main contract closed at 2249 yuan/ton, down 1.19% from the previous day. The national average spot price was 2562.63 yuan/ton, down 0.73%. Coastal oil mill rapeseed meal inventory increased, and the market sentiment was bearish [5][7]. - Supply Situation: China has completed the customs clearance of at least one ship of Australian rapeseeds and is expected to start crushing this week. Chinese crushers have also ordered Canadian rapeseeds and rapeseed meal for shipment in the coming months [7]. Palm Oil - Market Situation: The futures price of the main contract closed at 9094 yuan/ton, up 0.89% from the previous day. The national average price was 9100 yuan/ton, up 0.89%. The trading volume decreased, and the import cost increased. The inventory decreased slightly, and the proportion of bullish views increased [8]. - Supply - Demand Situation: Indonesia's export ban plan supported prices, but the January Malaysian palm oil export data was average, with a risk of inventory accumulation. India's palm oil imports reached a four - month high in January [9]. Cotton - Market Situation: Domestic cotton futures prices generally rose slightly, and US cotton prices declined slightly. The spot price decreased slightly, and the basis of some contracts weakened. The textile enterprise's profit decreased, and the demand of spinning and weaving enterprises declined [10]. - Supply - Demand Situation: Internationally, Brazil and Turkey are expected to reduce cotton production in 2026. In China, new - cotton processing is basically completed, inventory is being depleted, and import volume increased in December. However, domestic demand is in a weakening stage [11][12][13]. Red Dates - Market Situation: Futures prices rose slightly, and most spot prices remained stable. The basis of some contracts weakened, and the arrival volume in the Guangdong market decreased. The inventory of 36 sample enterprises decreased [14]. - Supply - Demand Situation: The supply of the spot market is stable, and the inventory depletion has accelerated. With the arrival of the peak consumption season, the futures price fluctuations increase [15][16]. Hogs - Market Situation: Futures prices generally declined, and the national average slaughter price decreased. The inventory of sample enterprises decreased slightly, and the slaughter volume increased. The slaughter profit improved, and the frozen - product storage rate decreased [17]. - Supply - Demand Situation: In January, the breeding side slightly exceeded the plan, and the supply in the south is relatively sufficient. In February, the planned slaughter volume of sample enterprises decreased, but the daily - average pressure increased. The demand increased during the pre - holiday period, and the overall profit remained above 0 yuan/head [18].