有色金属月度策略-20260204

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the content. 2. Core Views of the Report - The non - ferrous metals sector experienced a sharp decline and then a partial recovery. After a period of rapid rise in non - ferrous precious metals, the profit - taking pressure increased. The nomination of Fed Chairman candidate Wash and the geopolitical situation in Iran led to a strong rebound in the US dollar, triggering profit - taking in the market. However, as market sentiment was digested, the leading non - ferrous metals showed resistance, driving the sector to repair and consolidate [12][13]. - After significant adjustments, the non - ferrous metals sector is expected to see opportunities for long - position entry based on the strength of fundamentals after the adjustment pressure is fully released. Traders still need to pay attention to the pressure release from the precious metals sector, the sustainability of the US dollar's rebound, and geopolitical changes [13]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 First Part: Non - ferrous Metals Operating Logic and Investment Recommendations - Macro Logic: The non - ferrous metals sector adjusted rapidly after a sharp rise. The nomination of Wash led to a rebound in the US dollar. Economic data in the US and the eurozone showed certain characteristics, such as the US 12 - month PPI exceeding expectations and the eurozone's Q4 GDP growth being higher than expected. Trump planned a $12 billion investment in strategic mineral reserves. After the adjustment, as the market sentiment was digested, the sector showed signs of recovery [12]. - Non - ferrous Metals Strategy: - Copper: Affected by the sharp decline in the gold and silver markets, copper prices initially fell but rebounded in the afternoon. Trump's plan for a strategic mineral reserve may bring a premium to copper. The rise in copper prices in January was mainly due to valuation repair, and the fundamentals had limited positive effects. The Fed's policy and the long - term downward trend of the US dollar index are favorable for copper. In the short - term, the supply of copper concentrates is tight globally, but the domestic supply is still abundant. The demand is in a seasonal off - peak, and inventories are expected to increase. It is recommended to gradually go long on copper at low prices, with a short - term upper pressure range of 108,000 - 110,000 yuan/ton and a lower support range of 98,000 - 99,000 yuan/ton [3][14][15]. - Zinc: The decline in zinc prices converged. The geopolitical situation in Iran and the low inventory of LME zinc supported the external market. The domestic mine TC was stable, and imports slightly decreased. Downstream demand was weak, and inventories were likely to accumulate. It is recommended to consider going long on zinc at low prices if it stabilizes, with a short - term support range of 24,000 - 24,300 and a pressure range of 25,000 - 25,500 [4][15]. - Aluminum Industry Chain: Copper's rebound slightly improved the sentiment in the non - ferrous metals sector. For aluminum, it is recommended to wait and see or go long at low prices, with an upper pressure range of 26,000 - 27,000 and a lower support range of 22,000 - 23,000. For alumina, it is recommended to wait and see, with an upper pressure range of 2,900 - 3,000 and a lower support range of 2,300 - 2,600. For recycled aluminum alloys, it is recommended to wait and see, with an upper pressure range of 24,000 - 26,000 and a lower support range of 21,000 - 21,500 [5][15]. - Tin: The weak performance of the tin market improved, and it is expected to stabilize. It is recommended to wait and see, with an upper pressure range of 450,000 - 460,000 and a lower support range of 330,000 - 350,000 [6][7][15]. - Lead: The decline in non - ferrous metals slowed down. The supply and demand of lead were in a state of increasing supply and weak demand. It is expected to maintain a volatile pattern and weaken temporarily. It is recommended to go long on lead at low prices if the adjustment pressure in the sector is further alleviated, with a short - term support range of 16,400 - 16,600 and an upper pressure range of 17,000 - 17,300 [8][16]. - Nickel and Stainless Steel: The decline in non - ferrous metals slowed down. The US Treasury's inventory plan for nickel and the expected adjustment of Indonesia's nickel ore quota affected the market. The cost of nickel products increased, and the inventory of LME nickel was above 280,000 tons. It is recommended to go long on nickel and stainless steel at low prices after the adjustment is sufficient. For nickel, the upper pressure range is 138,000 - 140,000 yuan, and the lower support range is 125,000 - 128,000 yuan. For stainless steel, the upper pressure range is 13,800 - 14,000, and the lower support range is 13,000 - 13,400 [9][16]. 3.2 Second Part: Non - ferrous Metals Market Review The closing prices and price changes of various non - ferrous metal futures were presented, such as copper closing at 104,500 with a 6.01% increase, zinc closing at 24,960 with a 1.82% increase, etc. [17] 3.3 Third Part: Non - ferrous Metals Position Analysis The latest position analysis of the non - ferrous metals sector was provided, including the price changes, net long - short strength comparison, net long - short position differences, changes in net long and net short positions, and influencing factors of various varieties [21] 3.4 Fourth Part: Non - ferrous Metals Spot Market The spot prices and price changes of various non - ferrous metals were listed, such as the Yangtze River Non - ferrous copper spot price at 101,420 yuan/ton with a 0.27% increase, and the Yangtze River Non - ferrous 0 zinc spot average price at 25,050 yuan/ton with a 0.44% increase [22] 3.5 Fifth Part: Non - ferrous Metals Industry Chain Graphs related to the industry chain of various non - ferrous metals were provided, including copper, zinc, aluminum, alumina, tin, lead, nickel, and stainless steel, such as the change in copper inventory in exchanges and the change in zinc concentrate processing fees [24][25] 3.6 Sixth Part: Non - ferrous Metals Arbitrage Graphs related to the arbitrage of various non - ferrous metals were provided, such as the change in the copper Shanghai - London ratio and the change in the zinc Shanghai - London ratio [49][52] 3.7 Seventh Part: Non - ferrous Metals Options Graphs related to the options of various non - ferrous metals were provided, such as the historical volatility of copper options and the weighted implied volatility of zinc options [68][70]