2026年2月信用债市场展望：套息压舱，品种掘金

Key Insights - The credit bond carry trade strategy remains robust, but the safety cushion is narrowing, especially at the short end [3][4] - Current credit spreads are at relatively low levels, with attention on certain varieties and the value of lower-rated coupons [3][4] - The performance of perpetual bonds has been strong since the beginning of the year, but the market may have reached a temporary peak [3][4] Market Overview - In January 2026, the issuance of traditional credit bonds increased slightly, with net financing rising significantly [11][13] - The total issuance of credit bonds reached 12,308 billion, with net financing at 4,997 billion, showing a substantial increase compared to previous months [11][13] - The performance of credit bonds in January was strong, with yields declining and credit spreads narrowing across various maturities [19][23] Investment Strategy - It is recommended to extend the duration of carry trades to 3-5 years while focusing on mid to short-term coupon assets [4][6] - The demand for certain credit bonds is expected to remain supported by the accumulation of amortized debt funds, although the market may not see the same level of activity as in Q4 of the previous year [4][6] - Attention should be given to high-quality central state-owned enterprise real estate bonds, lower-rated city investment bonds, and high-grade insurance subordinated bonds for potential investment opportunities [4][6]