中辉有色观点-20260204

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core Views of the Report - Gold: Wait for stabilization. Continue to monitor the adjustment of market trading sentiment, with the previous overbought condition and high VIX index sentiment expected to normalize. Fundamentals have little short - term impact on the market, but in the long - term, the geopolitical order is being reshaped, uncertainties persist, and central banks continue to buy gold, maintaining its long - term strategic allocation value. Pay attention to the adjustment range [1]. - Silver: Wait for stabilization. Short - term game factors dominate, and the silver market's performance is unrelated to fundamentals. Although there has been a supply - demand gap for 5 consecutive years and global large - scale fiscal policies are favorable for silver in the long run, the market will continue to adjust in the short term [1]. - Copper: Hold for the long - term. The relaxation of macro - sentiment, the strong rebound of precious metals, and the suggestion from the non - ferrous metals association to include copper concentrates in the reserve system have stimulated the copper price to strengthen. It is recommended to hold long positions cautiously, take profits by moving stop - losses, and maintain patience for long - term positions [1]. - Zinc: Rebound is under pressure. With the relaxation of macro - sentiment and the strong rebound of precious metals, most of the non - ferrous sectors are in the green, but the speculative heat of zinc has cooled, and its price has turned red. As the Spring Festival approaches, demand is weak, and zinc ingot inventories are accumulating. It is recommended to temporarily observe, reduce positions, control risks, and wait for more macro - guidance [1]. - Lead: Under pressure. Domestic lead smelting is in a loss state, terminal consumer market demand has not improved, downstream enterprises only make rigid - demand purchases, and lead ingot social inventories are accumulating, so the lead price is under pressure in the short term [1]. - Tin: Stabilize. The supply disturbance from overseas tin mines has weakened. Currently, domestic smelters' production is relatively stable, but downstream replenishment demand is suppressed by high prices, resulting in a situation of weak supply and demand. The tin price shows a slight stabilizing trend in the short term [1]. - Aluminum: Stabilize. Overseas bauxite quotes are falling, keeping the alumina cost low. Currently, the domestic aluminum downstream is in a seasonal off - season, and aluminum ingot and aluminum rod social inventories are accumulating. The aluminum price shows a slight stabilizing trend in the short term [1]. - Nickel: Stabilize. The expectation of supply contraction from Indonesian nickel mines has been digested. The situation of high domestic nickel inventories and weak consumption continues, and the inventory of downstream stainless steel has also increased slightly month - on - month. The nickel price shows a slight stabilizing trend in the short term [1]. - Industrial silicon: Wide - range oscillation. Demand has weakened significantly in February. The operating rates in the southwest, Inner Mongolia, Gansu, and Ningxia on the supply side have changed little. Mainly focus on the production cuts of leading large enterprises. If the cuts are implemented effectively, it is expected to drive inventory reduction, and it is advisable to go long on dips [1]. - Polysilicon: Cautiously bearish. There is still pressure on inventory accumulation at the supply - demand level, and with the increase in futures market warehouse receipts, the futures contract has declined. However, a meeting was held again yesterday to study the next - step anti - involution in the industry, and the spot quotation has been raised, driving the futures market up [1]. - Lithium carbonate: Wide - range oscillation. Total inventories have been decreasing for 3 consecutive weeks, and production has declined. Stricter supervision and the sharp decline in the non - ferrous metals sector have dampened market sentiment. The main lithium carbonate contract has been limit - down for two consecutive days, with volatility reaching a new high. Participation should be cautious [1]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Gold and Silver - Market Performance: Both domestic and foreign spot and futures markets for gold and silver have rebounded in the short term, but the sustainability needs to be observed. The SHFE gold price is 1093.78, down 5.82% from the previous value and 7.79% from last week; the COMEX gold price is 4971, up 6.19% from the previous value but down 8.14% from last week. The SHFE silver price is 21446, down 23.25% from the previous value and 26.60% from last week; the COMEX silver price is 85, up 7.13% from the previous value but down 26.66% from last week [3]. - Core Logic: The recent sharp decline in precious metals is a technical position clearance in a high - volatility environment, not a fundamental reversal of the long - term logic. Wall Street institutions believe that the three pillars supporting the gold price are still solid, but in the short term, the market needs time to digest volatility and wait for speculative positions to return to a reasonable level. The gold price may find support around $4600, and a new pricing range of $4500 - $5500 is being formed [4]. - Future Outlook: Three variables will determine the gold price trend: the Fed's policy path, the unpredictability of Trump's policies, and the progress of AI technology. Domestically, pay attention to the performance of gold around 1100 and silver around 21000 [5]. Copper - Market Performance: The Shanghai copper main contract has strengthened in an oscillatory manner. The price of the Shanghai copper main contract is 105180 yuan/ton, up 3.49% from the previous day; the LME copper price is 13410 US dollars/ton, up 3.95% from the previous day; the COMEX copper price is 609.45 US dollars/pound, up 4.49% from the previous day [6]. - Industry Logic: Global copper mines remain in short supply, with strikes in Chilean copper mines exacerbating the shortage. Domestic smelters are expected to reduce production capacity by 10% in 2026, and refined copper supply will slow down marginally. During the off - season of demand, the export window is open, and the C - L spread has converged. However, COMEX copper inventories continue to accumulate. Demand from power, new energy vehicles, and big data centers is on the rise [7]. - Strategy Recommendation: Due to the relaxation of macro - sentiment and the stimulus of industrial policies, the copper price is strengthening in the short term. It is recommended to hold long positions cautiously, take profits by moving stop - losses, and maintain patience for long - term positions. In the medium - to - long - term, be optimistic about copper due to the shortage of copper concentrates and the explosion of green copper demand. Short - term, the Shanghai copper is expected to be in the range of [102500, 106500] yuan/ton, and the LME copper in the range of [12800, 13800] US dollars/ton [8]. Zinc - Market Performance: The Shanghai zinc main contract has declined under pressure. The price of the Shanghai zinc main contract is 24805 yuan/ton, down 0.40% from the previous day; the LME zinc price is 3323 US dollars/ton, up 0.14% from the previous day [9]. - Industry Logic: Global zinc mine supply may shrink in 2026. Domestic zinc ingot production is expected to increase in January. As the Spring Festival approaches, demand is weak, and inventories are accumulating. Although traditional real estate and infrastructure drag on zinc demand, emerging fields such as new energy vehicles, wind power, and photovoltaics are expected to make up for part of the gap [10]. - Strategy Recommendation: In the short term, it is recommended to reduce positions, control risks, and wait for more macro - guidance. In the medium - to - long - term, buy on dips on corrections, as global resource protectionism is accelerating, and the supply stability of important mineral resources is facing challenges. The Shanghai zinc is expected to be in the range of [24200, 25200] yuan/ton, and the LME zinc in the range of [3300, 3400] US dollars/ton [11]. Aluminum - Market Performance: The aluminum price has rebounded slightly, while the alumina price has faced pressure in its rebound. The LME aluminum price is 3099 US dollars/ton, up 1.39% from the previous value; the Shanghai aluminum main contract price is 23810 yuan/ton, up 3.36% from the previous value [12]. - Industry Logic: In 2026, the expectation of Fed rate cuts continues. The domestic electrolytic aluminum industry is profitable, but inventories are increasing. The domestic aluminum downstream is in a seasonal off - season, and the industry's start - up rate has declined. Overseas bauxite prices are under pressure, and the alumina industry's inventory pressure still exists, but the oversupply situation has slightly improved [14]. - Strategy Recommendation: It is recommended to take profits and observe in the short term, paying attention to the accumulation of aluminum ingot social inventories. The main contract is expected to operate in the range of [22000 - 24500] yuan/ton [14]. Nickel - Market Performance: The nickel price has rebounded slightly, and the stainless steel price has also rebounded. The LME nickel price is 17395 US dollars/ton, up 2.05% from the previous value; the Shanghai nickel main contract price is 135430 yuan/ton, up 4.40% from the previous value [15]. - Industry Logic: In 2026, the expectation of Fed rate cuts continues. Indonesia has significantly reduced its nickel ore production target in 2026, and supply - related disturbances are frequent. Domestic pure nickel inventories are accumulating, and the downstream stainless steel market is in a seasonal off - season, with inventories slightly increasing [17]. - Strategy Recommendation: It is recommended to take profits and observe, paying attention to Indonesian policies and downstream stainless steel inventory changes. The nickel main contract is expected to operate in the range of [120000 - 150000] yuan/ton [18]. Lithium Carbonate - Market Performance: The main contract LC2605 opened high and went high, rising more than 4% [19]. - Industry Logic: Domestic lithium salt plant start - up rates and production have both declined. The issue of mica mining licenses has intensified the expectation of supply tightness. Near the Spring Festival, downstream enterprises may start stocking up, and the adjustment of export tax - rebate policies will make the material factories show characteristics of an off - season not being off. Total inventories have been decreasing for 3 consecutive weeks, but regulatory risks are high [20]. - Strategy Recommendation: Due to increased regulatory risks and the risk of a stampede, it is advisable to hold positions cautiously in the range of [14300 - 155000] [21].