1月高频数据跟踪

Production Side - In January, the operating rate of 247 blast furnaces was 78.96%, showing a slight increase but still weak[3] - The operating rates for electric furnaces and rebar were 62.44% and 38.77%, respectively, both higher than the previous month's average[3] - Cement mill operating rate fell to 27.92%, a decrease from last month[3] - Chemical product operating rates generally improved, with soda ash, PVC, and PTA at 84.36%, 79.12%, and 76.10%, respectively, all significantly higher than last month[3] Demand Side - In January, the average transaction area of commercial housing in 30 cities decreased by 27.64% year-on-year, while land transaction area in 100 cities fell by 32.92%[4] - The average daily sales of passenger cars significantly cooled down, while movie box office revenue dropped by 11.21% year-on-year and 25.26% month-on-month[4] - The average subway passenger volume in ten major cities was 62.89 million, up 5.19% year-on-year and 0.82% month-on-month[4] Price Side - The wholesale price index for agricultural products rose by 5.55% year-on-year, while the chemical product price index increased by 3.70% month-on-month but decreased by 7.37% year-on-year[5] - Copper and aluminum prices rose by 8.45% and 6.39% month-on-month, with year-on-year increases of 32.26% and 15.58%, respectively[6] - Rebar prices remained low, with a month-on-month increase of 0.17% but a year-on-year decrease of 6.88%[6] Risk Factors - Risks include domestic policy implementation falling short of expectations and overseas policies exceeding expectations[7]