2月转债月报：权益慢牛未破，把握转债交易机会-20260204

Report Industry Investment Rating No investment rating information provided in the report. Core Views of the Report - Although the convertible bond valuation is becoming increasingly frothy and the allocation cost - effectiveness is low, the long - term and slow - bull pattern of the equity market remains unchanged. With potential incremental funds in the future, the A - share market's long - term and slow - bull market is expected to continue. Against this backdrop, the convertible bond valuation may have room for further upside and still holds trading value, but with high volatility. In trading, avoid high - price and high - premium and near - call convertible bonds, and focus on industries with continuous upward momentum and high performance realization [1][25]. - Specific investment suggestions include: (1) Pay attention to convertible bonds in the AI technology field such as Aiwei Convertible Bond, Luwei Convertible Bond, Huamao Convertible Bond, and Chun23 Convertible Bond; (2) Focus on large - scale chemical, coal, and precious metal sectors, and suggest paying attention to Naipu Zhuan02 and Pingmei Convertible Bond; (3) Consider individual bonds at relatively low levels and on the verge of rising from the cycle bottom, such as Huitian Convertible Bond and Huakang Convertible Bond [1][25]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 2.1 26 - year 1 - month Market Review - Equity Market - The equity market had a strong start in January 2026, driven by the continuation of the bullish sentiment at the end of 2025 and the capital allocation demand at the beginning of the year. The Shanghai Composite Index reached 4190.9 points on January 14, hitting a new high since September 24, 2024. The main market trends were driven by commercial space, AI, and the pro - cyclical market spurred by record - high precious metal prices. The market was cooled down by the increase in the minimum margin ratio for margin trading, but the bullish sentiment remained strong, and the index fluctuated upward. The monthly returns of the CSI 300, CSI 2000, and Wind Micro - cap Index were + 1.7%, + 8.2%, and + 10.6% respectively, and the Shanghai Composite and ChiNext Index rose by + 3.8% and + 4.5% respectively. The average daily trading volume of the Shanghai, Shenzhen, and Beijing stock exchanges was 3.04 trillion yuan, a significant increase from December 2025 [26]. - Most industry sectors in the equity market closed higher in January. The non - ferrous metals sector led the rise due to the sharp increase in COMEX gold, silver, and copper prices. The pro - cyclical sectors such as petrochemicals, chemicals, coal, and steel also performed well. The media and computer sectors were boosted by the development of AI applications. The electronics, power equipment, and military industries also showed some performance, while the consumption and large - scale financial sectors underperformed [29]. 2.2 26 - year 1 - month Market Review - Convertible Bond Market - In January, the convertible bond market was driven by both the underlying stocks and valuation, with the CSI Convertible Bond Index rising 5.8%, the same as the Wind All - A Index. Structurally, high - price, small - cap, and low - rating convertible bonds outperformed, and the high - price and low - premium convertible bonds significantly outperformed the double - low index. The average daily trading volume of the convertible bond market was 920.3 billion yuan, an increase from December 2025. In terms of industries, most of the 29 Shenwan industry convertible bond indexes rose, with machinery and communication leading the way. Among individual bonds, semiconductor - related convertible bonds such as Jingce Zhuan2, Huayi, and Dinglong Convertible Bond had the highest monthly returns [36][38]. 3. Convertible Bond Valuation - In January, the convertible bond valuation became more frothy. The 100 - yuan premium rate of the convertible bond market at the end of the month was 42.6%, up 4.45 percentage points from the end of December 2025, reaching the 99.5% and 99.3% quantiles since 2018 and 2021 respectively. The conversion premium rates for different par values of 40, 60, 80, 90, 110, 120, and 130 yuan increased by varying degrees compared to the end of December 2025 and were at high quantile levels [40]. - Measured by the median price of the whole market, the median price of convertible bonds at the end of the month was 140.0 yuan, up 6.3 yuan from the end of December 2025, and the median par value was 108.6 yuan, up 6.9 yuan. The median conversion premium rate and pure bond premium rate also changed compared to the end of December 2025 [47]. 4. Convertible Bond Supply and Demand 4.1 Convertible Bond Supply - In January 2026, the issuance scale of convertible bonds increased slightly year - on - year and month - on - month. Five new convertible bonds were issued, with a total scale of 57.8 billion yuan. Eight convertible bonds with a total scale of 55.87 billion yuan obtained registration approval, and 11 public convertible bond board proposals were announced, with a to - be - issued scale of 137.99 billion yuan. Thirteen convertible bonds announced call redemption and two matured and were redeemed [55][59][60]. 4.2 Convertible Bond Demand - In the context of the A - share market's trend, the share of convertible bond ETFs stopped falling and rebounded, and public funds further increased their positions in convertible bonds. Insurance funds continued to reduce their positions in convertible bonds due to the high valuation. The enterprise annuity's holdings of convertible bonds on the Shanghai and Shenzhen stock exchanges showed different trends, but overall, it was expected to maintain a slight reduction trend [61]. 5. Clause Tracking 5.1 Redemption - As of January 30, 13 convertible bonds were confirmed for call redemption, 21 were likely to be called, and 14 were not to be called [64]. 5.2 Downward Revision - As of January 30, four convertible bonds confirmed downward revisions, five proposed downward revisions, five were likely to trigger downward revisions, and 18 announced no downward revisions for the time being [67].