沥青期货周报-20260204

Report Summary 1. Reported Industry Investment Rating No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoint The short - term asphalt futures price may maintain a range - bound oscillation. The cost - side crude oil price and geopolitical situation are the main drivers. If the US - Iran conflict escalates or the crude oil price continues to rise, the futures price may test the upper pressure level; if the inventory continues to accumulate or the spot trading does not improve, the enlarged basis may cause the futures price to correct [8]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - This week, the asphalt futures price showed a "step - by - step rise" trend. Affected by the escalating geopolitical sentiment on January 26, the price opened at 3244 yuan/ton and oscillated upwards, closing up 1.39% on that day. It maintained a high - level consolidation on January 27, with the closing price remaining flat at 3279 yuan/ton. Driven by the sharp rise in crude oil on January 28, it broke through 3400 yuan/ton, with a single - day increase of 3.96%. It continued to rise on January 29, reaching a maximum of 3483 yuan/ton and closing at 3478 yuan/ton (+3.39%). On January 30, it opened higher, reached 3554 yuan/ton and then fell back, finally closing at 3424 yuan/ton (-0.38%). - The weekly trading volume increased significantly, with an average daily trading volume of 326,282 lots (181,000 lots last week), indicating active long - making sentiment among funds [2]. 3.2 Spot Market - The market price of Shandong heavy - traffic asphalt in the spot market remained stable at 3130 - 3300 yuan/ton. The spot prices in East and South China were slightly raised, but the trading was light. Traders' willingness to purchase for winter storage was low, and the demand side failed to effectively follow up the futures price increase [6]. 3.3 Influencing Factors - Cost side: International crude oil prices rose by more than 3% this week. The US cold wave led to a decline in production, the resumption of production at Kazakh oil fields was delayed, and the tense situation between the US and Iran (the US dispatched warships to the Middle East) pushed up the geopolitical premium of crude oil. For asphalt raw materials, the expectation of tightened supply of Venezuelan crude oil continued, the procurement cost of Ma Rui crude oil for domestic refineries increased, and the far - month discount quotation of diluted asphalt rose, providing significant cost - side support [7]. - Supply side: The operating rate of domestic asphalt plants remained at a low level of 26.8%. The planned production in January was 2 million tons (a 7.3% month - on - month decrease), and the expectation of supply contraction supported the price. However, inventory pressure emerged. As of January 30, the total asphalt inventory was 38,930 tons, an increase of 3,620 tons from last week. The total futures warehouse receipts were 42,060 tons (stable after January 27), with the factory warehouse accounting for 67.8%, indicating sufficient spot circulation resources and unabated delivery pressure [7].