光大期货能化商品日报（2026年2月4日）-20260204

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - All varieties in the report are rated as "volatile" [1][2][4][5][6] 2. Core Views of the Report - Crude Oil: Geopolitical tensions and inventory data impact prices, with cold - induced production decline providing support, but investors are advised to participate with light positions due to variable geopolitical factors [1] - Fuel Oil: Supply is abundant, demand for marine fuel oil is expected to increase before the Spring Festival, and prices are affected by geopolitical and cost factors, with follow - up pressure [2] - Asphalt: In February, northern refineries have low production and inventory, while southern refineries' inventory rises during the Spring Festival. Prices are affected by crude oil and raw material imports [2] - Polyester: Macro - environment cools, crude oil prices fall, and polyester raw materials are expected to fluctuate with costs, with a first - quarter inventory build - up expected [4] - Rubber: The macro - environment cools, and the rubber market has a supply - increase and demand - weakness situation, with prices expected to decline and fluctuate [4] - Methanol: Supply may decrease in February, demand from MTO devices may decline, and prices are expected to fluctuate in a wide range at a low level [5] - Polyolefins: Supply may increase slightly, inventory will increase passively during the holiday, and prices are expected to fluctuate at the bottom [5] - Polyvinyl Chloride: Supply is high, demand from the real - estate downstream is weak, but there is an expected supply reduction due to environmental policies, and prices are expected to fluctuate at the bottom [6] 3. Summaries by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Research Views - Crude Oil: On Tuesday, WTI 3 - month contract rose 1.07 dollars to 63.21 dollars/barrel (1.72% increase), Brent 4 - month contract rose 1.03 dollars to 67.33 dollars/barrel (1.55% increase), and SC2603 rose 8 yuan/barrel to 457.8 yuan/barrel (1.78% increase). Geopolitical tensions and API data on inventory changes are key factors [1] - Fuel Oil: On Tuesday, FU2603 fell 3.81% to 22701 yuan/ton, LU2604 fell 2.28% to 3168 yuan/ton. Supply is abundant, and demand for marine fuel oil is expected to increase before the Spring Festival [2] - Asphalt: On Tuesday, BU2603 fell 1.72% to 3309 yuan/ton. In February, northern refineries have low production and inventory, while southern refineries' inventory rises during the Spring Festival [2] - Polyester: TA605 rose 1.14% to 5150 yuan/ton, EG2605 was flat at 3767 yuan/ton. A 500,000 - ton/year MEG device in South China restarted, and there are inventory build - up expectations in the first quarter [4] - Rubber: On Tuesday, RU2605 rose 200 yuan/ton to 16180 yuan/ton, NR rose 170 yuan/ton to 13095 yuan/ton, BR rose 285 yuan/ton to 13185 yuan/ton. The macro - environment cools, and supply exceeds demand [4] - Methanol: On Tuesday, Taicang spot price was 2225 yuan/ton. Supply may decrease in February, and demand from MTO devices may decline [5] - Polyolefins: On Tuesday, East China's PP prices were between 6550 - 6750 yuan/ton. Supply may increase slightly, and inventory will increase during the holiday [5] - Polyvinyl Chloride: On Tuesday, PVC market prices in East China were stable with a slight increase. Supply is high, demand from the real - estate downstream is weak, but there is an expected supply reduction due to environmental policies [6] 3.2 Daily Data Monitoring - The table shows the basis data of various energy - chemical products on February 4, 2026, including spot price, futures price, basis, basis rate, and their changes [7] 3.3 Market News - Trump said on February 2 that the US and India reached a trade deal, with India potentially stopping buying Russian oil and the US reducing tariffs on Indian goods. API data showed that last week, US crude and distillate inventories decreased sharply, while gasoline inventory increased significantly [9] 3.4 Chart Analysis - 4.1 Main Contract Prices: The section presents the closing price charts of main contracts of various energy - chemical products from 2022 to 2026 [11][13][15][17][19][22][24][26] - 4.2 Main Contract Basis: The section shows the basis charts of main contracts of various energy - chemical products from 2022 to 2026 [28][31][35][36][38][39] - 4.3 Inter - period Contract Spreads: The section presents the spread charts of different contracts of various energy - chemical products [41][43][46][49][51][53][55] - 4.4 Inter - variety Spreads: The section shows the spread and ratio charts between different energy - chemical products [57][59][61][65] - 4.5 Production Profits: The section presents the production profit and processing fee charts of various energy - chemical products [67][69] 3.5 Team Member Introduction - The report introduces the members of the energy - chemical research team, including the deputy director of the research institute, the research director, and several analysts, along with their professional backgrounds and honors [72][73][74][75]