碳酸锂日报（2026年2月4日）-20260204

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided in the report 2. Core View of the Report - The lithium carbonate futures 2605 rose 4.63% to 148,100 yuan/ton yesterday. The average price of battery - grade lithium carbonate decreased by 2,000 yuan/ton to 153,500 yuan/ton, the average price of industrial - grade lithium carbonate decreased by 2,000 yuan/ton to 150,000 yuan/ton, and the price of battery - grade lithium hydroxide (coarse particles) decreased by 2,500 yuan/ton to 149,500 yuan/ton. The warehouse receipt inventory increased by 843 tons to 33,084 tons [3]. - On the supply side, the weekly output decreased by 648 tons to 21,569 tons. Among them, lithium extraction from spodumene decreased by 670 tons to 13,244 tons, lithium extraction from lepidolite decreased by 50 tons to 2,832 tons, lithium extraction from salt lakes increased by 90 tons to 3,205 tons, and lithium extraction from recycled materials decreased by 18 tons to 2,288 tons. According to SMM, the production of battery - grade lithium carbonate in February decreased by 17.6% month - on - month to 58,835 tons, and the production of industrial - grade lithium carbonate decreased by 12.7% month - on - month to 23,095 tons. On the demand side, the weekly output of ternary materials decreased by 203 tons to 18,053 tons, and the inventory decreased by 177 tons to 18,691 tons; the weekly output of lithium iron phosphate increased by 904 tons to 88,223 tons, and the inventory increased by 229 tons to 96,819 tons. According to SMM, the production of ternary materials in February decreased by 14.6% month - on - month to 69,250 tons, lithium iron phosphate decreased by 10.7% month - on - month to 354,000 tons; ternary power batteries decreased by 14.3% month - on - month to 24.84 GWh, lithium iron power batteries decreased by 10.8% month - on - month to 79.71 GWh, and lithium iron energy storage decreased by 8.8% month - on - month to 57.46 GWh. On the inventory side, the weekly social inventory of lithium carbonate decreased by 1,414 tons to 107,482 tons, among which the downstream inventory increased by 3,007 tons to 40,599 tons, the inventory in other links decreased by 3,590 tons to 47,880 tons, and the upstream inventory decreased by 831 tons to 19,903 tons [3]. - Previously, the market sentiment deteriorated, and the valuation of lithium carbonate was rapidly lowered, with the weighted positions basically halved from the high. Yesterday, the market sentiment recovered to some extent. Against the background of destocking in the first quarter, lithium carbonate showed relative strength. Attention should be paid to the opportunity of commodity valuation upward revision driven by emotional resonance. However, it should be noted that with the sharp decline in prices last week and on Monday, spot transactions increased significantly, and pre - holiday stocking is basically over, so the pre - holiday fundamental support is relatively weak. On the other hand, attention should be paid to the potential disturbances brought by the US strategic critical mineral reserve project [3]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Daily Data Monitoring - The closing price of the main contract of lithium carbonate futures was 148,100 yuan/ton on February 3, 2026, up 15,660 yuan from February 2, 2026; the closing price of the continuous contract was 149,000 yuan/ton, up 12,140 yuan. The price of spodumene concentrate (6%, CIF China) was 1,947 US dollars/ton, down 21 US dollars; the price of lepidolite (Li2O: 1.5% - 2.0%) was 3,110 yuan/ton, down 40 yuan; the price of lepidolite (Li2O: 2.0% - 2.5%) was 4,745 yuan/ton, down 85 yuan; the price of amblygonite (Li2O: 6% - 7%) was 14,350 yuan/ton, down 350 yuan; the price of amblygonite (Li2O: 7% - 8%) was 15,650 yuan/ton, down 400 yuan [5]. - The price of battery - grade lithium carbonate (99.5% battery - grade/domestic) was 153,500 yuan/ton, down 2,000 yuan; the price of industrial - grade lithium carbonate (99.2% industrial zero - grade/domestic) was 150,000 yuan/ton, down 2,000 yuan; the price of battery - grade lithium hydroxide (coarse particles/domestic) was 149,500 yuan/ton, down 2,500 yuan; the price of battery - grade lithium hydroxide (micropowder) was 155,250 yuan/ton, down 2,300 yuan; the price of industrial - grade lithium hydroxide (coarse particles/domestic) was 139,000 yuan/ton, down 3,000 yuan; the price of battery - grade lithium hydroxide (CIF China, Japan and South Korea) was 18.25 US dollars/kg, down 0.75 US dollars; the price of lithium hexafluorophosphate was 136,000 yuan/ton, down 2,500 yuan [5]. - The price difference between battery - grade lithium carbonate and industrial - grade lithium carbonate was 3,500 yuan/ton, unchanged; the price difference between battery - grade lithium hydroxide and battery - grade lithium carbonate was - 4,000 yuan/ton, down 500 yuan; the price difference between CIF China, Japan and South Korea battery - grade lithium hydroxide and SMM battery - grade lithium hydroxide was - 22,465.4 yuan/ton, down 2,886 yuan [5]. - The price of ternary precursor 523 (polycrystalline/power type) was 118,550 yuan/ton, down 200 yuan; the price of ternary precursor 523 (single - crystal/consumer type) was 104,850 yuan/ton, down 150 yuan; the price of ternary precursor 622 (polycrystalline/consumer type) was 97,900 yuan/ton, down 100 yuan; the price of ternary precursor 811 (polycrystalline/power type) was 118,600 yuan/ton, down 250 yuan [5]. - The price of ternary material 523 (polycrystalline/consumer type) was 187,500 yuan/ton, down 1,000 yuan; the price of ternary material 523 (single - crystal/power type) was 180,200 yuan/ton, down 800 yuan; the price of ternary material 622 (polycrystalline/consumer type) was 178,900 yuan/ton, down 850 yuan; the price of ternary material 811 (power type) was 204,700 yuan/ton, down 1,100 yuan; the price of lithium iron phosphate (power type) was 54,385 yuan/ton, down 485 yuan; the price of lithium iron phosphate (mid - high - end energy storage) was 52,840 yuan/ton, down 485 yuan; the price of lithium iron phosphate (low - end energy storage) was 49,300 yuan/ton, down 460 yuan; the price of lithium manganate (power type) was 57,500 yuan/ton, down 500 yuan; the price of lithium manganate (capacity type) was 55,500 yuan/ton, down 500 yuan; the price of cobalt acid lithium (60%, 4.35V/domestic) was 407,000 yuan/ton, unchanged [5]. - The price of 523 square ternary cells was 0.582 yuan/Wh, unchanged; the price of 523 soft - pack ternary cells was 0.58 yuan/Wh, unchanged; the price of 523 cylindrical ternary batteries was 6.15 yuan/piece, up 0.25 yuan; the price of square lithium iron phosphate cells was 0.368 yuan/Wh, up 0.005 yuan; the price of square lithium iron phosphate cells (small power type) was 0.54 yuan/Wh, up 0.02 yuan; the price of cobalt acid lithium cells was 8.25 yuan/Ah, up 0.2 yuan; the price of square lithium iron phosphate batteries was 0.315 yuan/Wh, up 0.002 yuan [5]. 3.2 Chart Analysis - Ore Prices: The report provides price trend charts of spodumene concentrate (6%, CIF), lepidolite (1.5% - 2.0%), lepidolite (2.0% - 2.5%), and amblygonite (6% - 7%, 7% - 8%) from 2024 to 2026 [6][9]. - Lithium and Lithium Salt Prices: There are price trend charts of metal lithium, battery - grade lithium carbonate average price, industrial - grade lithium carbonate average price, battery - grade lithium hydroxide, industrial - grade lithium hydroxide, and lithium hexafluorophosphate from 2024 to 2026 [12][14][18]. - Price Differences: The report shows price difference trend charts of battery - grade lithium hydroxide and battery - grade lithium carbonate, battery - grade lithium carbonate and industrial - grade lithium carbonate, CIF China, Japan and South Korea battery - grade lithium hydroxide and battery - grade lithium hydroxide, battery - grade lithium carbonate (CIF Asia) and domestic battery - grade lithium carbonate, and basis from 2024 to 2026 [20][22][25]. - Precursors and Cathode Materials: Price trend charts of ternary precursors, ternary materials, lithium iron phosphate, lithium manganate, and cobalt acid lithium from 2024 to 2026 are presented [27][29][31]. - Lithium Battery Prices: There are price trend charts of 523 square ternary cells, square lithium iron phosphate cells, cobalt acid lithium cells, and square lithium iron phosphate batteries from 2024 to 2026 [33][36]. - Inventory: The report provides inventory trend charts of downstream, smelters, and other links from June 12, 2025, to January 29, 2026 [38][40]. - Production Costs: A production cost trend chart of lithium carbonate from 2024 to 2026 is shown, including cash production profit from purchasing ternary pole piece black powder, lithium iron phosphate pole piece black powder, lithium mica concentrate, and spodumene concentrate [43].