有色商品日报-20260204

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided Group 2: Core Views of the Report - Copper prices rebounded significantly after digesting the impact of precious metal adjustments, but the copper market still faces challenges such as weak spot fundamentals, accumulating inventory, and a demand vacuum around the Spring Festival. The price may fluctuate around the Spring Festival, but the adjustment will lay a solid foundation for the medium - to long - term rise of copper prices [1]. - Alumina oscillated weakly, while aluminum alloy and Shanghai aluminum oscillated strongly. Supply disruptions have led alumina into a narrow - range repair state, but inventory is gradually accumulating. Attention should be paid to the progress of the US - Iran situation [1][2]. - Nickel prices rose. Although the phased demand has weakened, the cost support remains strong, and there may be opportunities to try long positions lightly near the cost line [2]. Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Research Views Copper - Macro: The dovish - leaning Fed governor Milan said that more than 100 basis points of interest rate cuts are needed this year, and the partial shutdown of the US government is expected to end [1]. - Inventory: LME copper inventory increased by 1450 tons to 176,125 tons; Comex inventory increased by 2284 tons to 528,252 tons; SHFE copper warehouse receipts increased by 494 tons to 153,021 tons, and BC copper remained at 10,615 tons [1]. - Demand: As copper prices adjusted, the purchasing willingness increased significantly [1]. - News: The deputy secretary - general of the China Nonferrous Metals Industry Association proposed to improve the copper resource reserve system [1]. Aluminum - Price: Alumina oscillated weakly, AO2605 closed at 2806 yuan/ton, down 0.14%; aluminum alloy AD2603 closed at 22,300 yuan/ton, up 1.29%; Shanghai aluminum AL2603 closed at 23,865 yuan/ton, up 1.47% [1]. - Inventory: Aluminum ingot inventory is gradually accumulating. Attention should be paid to the US - Iran situation [1][2]. Nickel - Price: LME nickel rose 2.05% to $17,395/ton, and Shanghai nickel rose 2.34% to 135,770 yuan/ton [2]. - Inventory: LME inventory remained at 285,528 tons, and SHFE warehouse receipts increased by 1606 tons to 48,180 tons [2]. - Fundamentals: Nickel ore and nickel - iron prices strengthened in trading, and the supply may be tight. The cost support is rising. Although the demand is weakening, the price is expected to be strongly supported [2]. 2. Daily Data Monitoring Copper - Price: The price of flat - water copper increased by 870 yuan/ton, and the price of 1 bright scrap copper in Guangdong increased by 200 yuan/ton [3]. - Inventory: LME inventory increased by 1450 tons, SHFE warehouse receipts increased by 494 tons, and Comex inventory increased by 1860 tons [3]. Lead - Price: The average price of 1 lead decreased by 110 yuan/ton [3]. - Inventory: LME inventory increased by 28,775 tons, and SHFE warehouse receipts increased by 4021 tons [3]. Aluminum - Price: The Wuxi and Nanhai quotes decreased, and the price of ADC12 in South China decreased by 200 yuan/ton [4]. - Inventory: LME inventory decreased by 2000 tons, SHFE warehouse receipts increased by 253 tons, and social inventory of electrolytic aluminum increased by 34,000 tons [4]. Nickel - Price: The price of Jinchuan nickel decreased by 900 yuan/ton, and the price of 304/2B coil in Wuxi decreased by 300 yuan/ton [4]. - Inventory: LME inventory remained unchanged, SHFE nickel warehouse receipts increased by 1606 tons, and social inventory increased by 2784 tons [4]. Zinc - Price: The main settlement price decreased by 1.0%, and the price of zinc alloy Zamak3 increased by 80 yuan/ton [6]. - Inventory: SHFE inventory increased by 793 tons, LME inventory decreased by 125 tons, and social inventory increased by 0.38 million tons [6]. Tin - Price: The main settlement price decreased by 9.1%, and the price of SMM spot decreased by 10,850 yuan/ton [6]. - Inventory: SHFE inventory increased by 748 tons, and LME inventory decreased by 10 tons [6]. 3. Chart Analysis - The report provides multiple charts, including those related to spot premium and discount, SHFE near - far month spreads, LME inventory, SHFE inventory, social inventory, and smelting profits of various non - ferrous metals [11][12][19]