工业硅、多晶硅日报（2026年2月4日）-20260204

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided 2. Core View of the Report - On February 3, industrial silicon fluctuated weakly, with the main contract 2605 closing at 8,815 yuan/ton, an intraday decline of 0.62%, and the open interest decreased by 1,513 lots to 235,000 lots. The reference price of industrial silicon spot from百川 was 9,628 yuan/ton, remaining stable compared to the previous trading day. The lowest deliverable price remained stable at 8,850 yuan/ton, and the spot premium narrowed to 35 yuan/ton [2]. - Polysilicon fluctuated strongly, with the main contract 2605 closing at 50,000 yuan/ton, an intraday increase of 6.61%, and the open interest decreased by 1,867 lots to 38,411 lots. The price of N-type recycled polysilicon material from百川 dropped to 52,500 yuan/ton, and the lowest deliverable silicon material price was 52,500 yuan/ton, with the spot premium narrowing to 3,500 yuan/ton [2]. - Silica enterprises have officially entered the winter maintenance period, and the overall supply of ore is shrinking. Downstream industries have also entered full - scale maintenance due to the Spring Festival holiday. In the game of reduced supply and demand of industrial silicon, the price has cost support, but whether there can be upward momentum depends on whether large manufacturers cut production more than expected [2]. - The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology held a meeting and mentioned anti - monopoly issues again. The signing of new orders by silicon wafer enterprises is basically at a standstill, the pessimistic expectation in the crystalline silicon market continues, and there is still downward pressure on silicon material prices. Attention should be paid to whether the industry inventory can be reduced and whether silicon material factories have plans to expand production cuts [2]. 3. Summary of Each Section 3.1 Daily Data Monitoring - Industrial Silicon Futures and Spot Prices: The futures settlement price of the main industrial silicon contract increased from 8,795 yuan/ton on February 2 to 8,815 yuan/ton on February 3, an increase of 20 yuan/ton. Most of the spot prices of different grades and at different ports remained unchanged. The current lowest deliverable price was 8,850 yuan/ton, and the spot premium decreased from 5 yuan/ton to 35 yuan/ton [4]. - Polysilicon Futures and Spot Prices: The futures settlement price of the main polysilicon contract increased from 47,050 yuan/ton on February 2 to 50,000 yuan/ton on February 3, an increase of 2,950 yuan/ton. Some spot prices increased, and the current lowest deliverable price increased from 51,300 yuan/ton to 53,500 yuan/ton. The spot premium decreased from 4,250 yuan/ton to 3,500 yuan/ton [4]. - Organic Silicon Spot Prices: The price of DMC in the East China market remained at 14,000 yuan/ton, the prices of raw rubber and 107 glue remained unchanged, and the price of dimethyl silicone oil increased by 1,000 yuan/ton to 15,500 yuan/ton [4]. - Inventory Situation: The industrial silicon warehouse receipts increased by 852 tons to 15,707 tons. The Guangzhou Futures Exchange inventory increased by 18,560 tons to 69,715 tons. The total social inventory of industrial silicon increased by 16,800 tons to 456,150 tons. The polysilicon warehouse receipts increased by 40 tons to 8,510 tons. The Guangzhou Futures Exchange inventory increased by 132,000 tons to 252,600 tons. The total social inventory of polysilicon increased by 25,000 tons to 333,000 tons [4]. 3.2 Chart Analysis - Industrial Silicon and Cost - Side Prices: Charts show the prices of different grades of industrial silicon, grade spreads, regional spreads, electricity prices, silica prices, and refined coal prices [6][9][12]. - Downstream Product Prices: Charts display the prices of DMC, organic silicon products, polysilicon, silicon wafers, battery cells, and components [15][17][19]. - Inventory: Charts present the futures inventories of industrial silicon and polysilicon, the weekly industry inventories of industrial silicon, the weekly inventory changes of industrial silicon, the weekly inventories of polysilicon and DMC [21][22][25]. - Cost and Profit: Charts show the average cost and profit levels of industrial silicon, the weekly cost and profit of industrial silicon, the processing industry profit of polysilicon, the cost and profit of DMC, and the cost and profit of aluminum alloys [27][29][31].