化工日报：节前需求偏弱，EG弱势运行-20260204

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints - The EG market is weak before the holiday. The domestic supply of ethylene glycol (EG) remains high, with limited reduction in syngas production load. There is significant pressure to accumulate inventory from January to February due to high supply and weakening demand. Overseas supply is expected to ease in mid - to late February. Demand has weakened as the Spring Festival maintenance plans have been implemented since mid - January, leading to a decline in weaving and polyester loads. Overall, the EG fundamentals are weak, with high inventory accumulation pressure from January to February and potential improvement in March [1][2] Summary by Directory Price and Basis - The closing price of the EG main contract was 3767 yuan/ton (unchanged from the previous trading day, 0.00% change). The spot price of EG in the East China market was 3657 yuan/ton (down 55 yuan/ton from the previous trading day, -1.48% change). The spot basis of EG in East China was -100 yuan/ton (down 2 yuan/ton month - on - month) [1] Production Profit and Operating Rate - According to Longzhong data, the production gross profit of ethylene - based EG was -62 US dollars/ton (down 11 US dollars/ton month - on - month), and the production gross profit of coal - based syngas EG was -853 yuan/ton (down 105 yuan/ton month - on - month) [1] International Price Difference - Not provided in the summarized content Downstream Sales, Production and Operating Rate - Since mid - January, the Spring Festival maintenance plans have been gradually implemented, resulting in an accelerated decline in weaving and polyester loads, and the support from rigid demand has weakened [2] Inventory Data - According to CCF data released every Monday, the inventory of MEG in the main ports of East China was 89.7 tons (up 3.9 tons month - on - month); according to Longzhong data released every Thursday, the inventory of MEG in the main ports of East China was 64.5 tons (up 2.8 tons month - on - month). The actual arrival volume at the main ports in East China last week was 13.6 tons, and the arrival volume at the secondary ports was 2.8 tons. The planned arrival volume at the main ports in East China this week is 12.3 tons, and the arrival volume at the secondary ports is 2.3 tons. Overall, it is neutral, and the inventory at the main ports is expected to remain stable [1] Strategies - Unilateral: In the short term, affected by the macro - external environment, the atmosphere in the commodity market has weakened, and the EG price has fallen back to the previous low - level range. It is advisable to observe market dynamics. - Inter - period: Not recommended - Inter - variety: Not recommended [3]