现货表现仍坚挺，关注下游需求跟进情况

Report Industry Investment Rating - No investment rating provided in the report Core Viewpoints - The spot performance of propylene remains strong, and attention should be paid to the follow - up of downstream demand. The supply increment of propylene is still limited due to the ongoing maintenance of some PDH plants and the slow load - increase of restarted plants. Downstream demand is supported by rigid demand, but high propylene prices may compress downstream profits and limit demand follow - up. The cost support for propylene is gradually weakening, and the future trend mainly depends on the cost of crude oil and propane and the maintenance of major PDH plants. The recommended trading strategy is to wait and see [1][2][3] Summary by Directory 1. Propylene Basis Structure - The closing price of the propylene main contract is 6,229 yuan/ton (+107). The East China spot price of propylene is 6,490 yuan/ton (-50), and the North China spot price is 6,420 yuan/ton (+30). The East China basis of propylene is 261 yuan/ton (-157), and the Shandong basis is 191 yuan/ton (-77). The 03 - 04 contract spread and PL03 - 05 contract spread are also mentioned in the report [1][6][8] 2. Propylene Production Profit and Capacity Utilization - The propylene capacity utilization rate is 70% (-1%). The difference between propylene CFR in China and naphtha CFR in Japan is 254 US dollars/ton (+15). The production margins of PDH, MTO, and naphtha cracking methods, as well as the corresponding capacity utilization rates, are presented. The import profit of propylene is - 389 yuan/ton (+5) [1][21][24] 3. Propylene Downstream Profit and Capacity Utilization - PP powder capacity utilization rate is 32% (+1.29%), with a production profit of - 280 yuan/ton (-90). Epoxy propane capacity utilization rate is 73% (+0%), with a production profit of - 375 yuan/ton (+0). The capacity utilization rates and production profits of n - butanol, octanol, acrylic acid, acrylonitrile, and phenol - acetone are also provided [1][37][38] 4. Propylene Inventory - The propylene in - plant inventory is 42,790 tons (+3,810), and the PP powder in - plant inventory is also included in the report [1][63]