油脂日报：外部环境转稳，油脂盘面震荡-20260204

Group 1: Report's Industry Investment Rating - The investment rating for the industry is "Neutral" [3] Group 2: Report's Core View - The external environment has stabilized, and the oil and fat market is oscillating. The market has returned to the supply - demand pattern. Currently in the production - reduction season, the production - reduction data of Malaysian origin from various information agencies is in line with expectations. Coupled with positive factors from the Indonesian origin, palm oil has strong long - term price support. However, after the recent rapid price increase, there is pressure for price correction [2] Group 3: Market Analysis Futures - The closing price of the palm oil 2605 contract yesterday was 9094.00 yuan/ton, a change of +80 yuan or +0.89% from the previous day. The closing price of the soybean oil 2605 contract was 8086.00 yuan/ton, a change of - 6.00 yuan or - 0.07%. The closing price of the rapeseed oil 2605 contract was 9215.00 yuan/ton, a change of +79.00 yuan or +0.86% [1] Spot - The spot price of palm oil in Guangdong was 9030.00 yuan/ton, a change of +80.00 yuan or +0.89%, and the spot basis was P05 - 64.00, with no change. The spot price of first - grade soybean oil in Tianjin was 8380.00 yuan/ton, a change of - 20.00 yuan/ton or - 0.24%, and the spot basis was Y05 + 294.00, a change of - 14.00 yuan. The spot price of fourth - grade rapeseed oil in Jiangsu was 9970.00 yuan/ton, a change of +60.00 yuan or +0.61%, and the spot basis was OI05 + 755.00, a change of - 19.00 yuan [1] Recent Market Information - According to SGS, Malaysia's palm oil exports from January 1 - 31 were estimated at 944,885 tons, a decrease of 5.58% from the previous month. According to AmSpec, Malaysia's palm oil exports from January 1 - 31 were 1,375,718 tons, an increase of 14.89% from the previous month [2] - The Central Committee of the Communist Party of China and the State Council issued an opinion on promoting rural revitalization. It includes strengthening market monitoring and information release of agricultural products, coordinating market - based purchases and policy - based storage, and promoting reasonable prices of important agricultural products. It also involves setting minimum purchase prices for rice and wheat and improving the target price policy for cotton [2] - Indian palm oil imports last month jumped to 766,000 tons, the highest since October 2025, compared with 507,204 tons in December [2] - According to SPPOMA, from January 1 - 31, 2026, Malaysia's palm oil yield per unit decreased by 13.78% month - on - month, the oil extraction rate increased by 0.16% month - on - month, and production decreased by 13.08% month - on - month [2] - The CEO of the US Soybean Export Association said that global demand growth is beneficial to the outlook of US soybean exports this year. While China remains the largest market, its demand for US soybeans has declined, and demand from countries like Bangladesh, Egypt, and South American countries is growing [2] Group 4: Strategy - The strategy is to maintain a "Neutral" stance [3]