美联储鹰派言论升温，镍不锈钢弱势震荡

1. Report's Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The nickel and stainless steel markets are in a weak and volatile state due to the hawkish remarks from the Federal Reserve. For both nickel and stainless steel, it is advisable to focus on range - bound operations considering the large price fluctuations and approaching Spring Festival. However, with the continuous supply disruptions of nickel ore, there is some support at the cost end, and one can consider buying on dips if the price correction is significant [1][3][5] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Nickel Variety - Market Analysis - On February 3, 2026, the main contract of Shanghai nickel 2603 opened at 132,640 RMB per ton and closed at 134,830 RMB per ton, a - 1.25% change from the previous trading day. The trading volume was 663,364 (- 144,776) lots, and the open interest was 101,500 (- 9,445) lots. The main contract showed a "low - open, bottom - probing, and oscillating recovery" weak consolidation trend, influenced by the game between macro - sentiment and industrial fundamentals [2] - Macroscopically, the hawkish remarks from the Federal Reserve overnight led to concerns about liquidity tightening, causing a general decline in commodities. The sharp drop in LME nickel dragged down the opening of Shanghai nickel. In China, the relatively stable macro - policy and rising pre - holiday capital risk - aversion sentiment limited the price rebound [2] - In the nickel ore market, it diverged from the downstream. Affected by overseas macro - news, Shanghai nickel futures adjusted significantly, and the downstream nickel - iron price also回调. But the nickel ore CIF quotes remained high due to the high FOB transaction costs. The CIF transaction price of 1.4% grade nickel ore from the Philippines to Indonesia reached 58 - 60 US dollars, and the domestic port quotes also rose to a similar level. There was a stalemate in the market as traders held firm on prices based on procurement costs, while downstream nickel - iron plants were reluctant to accept high - priced raw materials due to falling product prices and increased profit pressure. The domestic factories' psychological price for 1.4% grade nickel ore was generally 55 - 56 US dollars, resulting in few actual transactions [3] - In the spot market, Jinchuan Group's sales price in the Shanghai market was 143,400 RMB per ton, up 100 RMB per ton from the previous trading day. The spot trading was average, and the spot premiums and discounts of various refined nickel brands were mostly stable. The premium of Jinchuan nickel changed by 500 RMB per ton to 9,250 RMB per ton, the premium of imported nickel remained unchanged at - 50 RMB per ton, and the premium of nickel beans was 2,450 RMB per ton. The previous trading day's Shanghai nickel warehouse receipts were 48,180 (1,606) tons, and the LME nickel inventory was 285,528 (0) tons [3] - Strategy - It is recommended to focus on range - bound operations. Considering the continuous supply disruptions of nickel ore and cost - end support, one can consider buying on dips if the price correction is significant [3] - Unilateral: Focus on range - bound operations; Cross - period: None; Cross - variety: None; Spot - futures: None; Options: None [3][4] Stainless Steel Variety - Market Analysis - On February 3, 2026, the main contract of stainless steel 2603 opened at 13,520 RMB per ton and closed at 13,585 RMB per ton. The trading volume was 219,431 (- 141,131) lots, and the open interest was 67,925 (- 4,171) lots. The main contract showed a "low - open and narrow - range oscillation" weak consolidation trend, with prices difficult to rebound effectively due to the game between cost support, weak pre - holiday demand, and bearish macro - sentiment [4] - Overnight, the hawkish remarks from the Federal Reserve led to a general decline in commodities, and the sharp drop in LME nickel dragged down the opening of stainless steel. In China, the pre - holiday capital risk - aversion sentiment and the collective decline in the black sector reduced market risk appetite, suppressing price rebounds. On the supply side, some steel mills carried out pre - holiday maintenance, slightly alleviating the supply pressure. On the demand side, as the Spring Festival approached, downstream processing enterprises gradually shut down, resulting in cold spot procurement and sales. Although the spot prices of stainless steel tried to hold firm, the actual transactions were limited, and the weak phased demand was the main constraint for price increases [4][5] - In the spot market, the spot quotes were driven down by futures, and actual transactions were poor due to the approaching Spring Festival. The stainless steel price in the Wuxi market was 14,000 (- 300) RMB per ton, and in the Foshan market, it was 14,050 (- 150) RMB per ton. The 304/2B premium and discount was 490 - 690 RMB per ton. According to SMM data, the ex - factory tax - included average price of high - nickel pig iron changed by - 6.50 RMB per nickel point to 1,032.5 RMB per nickel point [5] - Strategy - It is recommended to focus on range - bound operations. Considering the continuous supply disruptions of nickel ore and cost - end support, one can consider buying on dips if the price correction is significant [5] - Unilateral: Focus on range - bound operations; Cross - period: None; Cross - variety: None; Spot - futures: None; Options: None [4][5]