马士基、赫伯罗特宣布一联盟航线复航

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Report's Core View - The estimated bottom value of the February contract is around 1700 points, and factors such as ship - schedule delays and the online cargo - collection ratio of different alliances will affect the final delivery settlement price. The cargo volume in December and January is at a relatively high level within the year [4]. - Before the Spring Festival, the driving force for freight rates is weak. The EC2604 contract is expected to fluctuate in the near term. Attention should be paid to whether the shipping companies' price - support measures are effective in March after the festival. The cancellation of VAT export tax rebates for products like photovoltaic may disrupt the shipping rhythm and shipping companies' pricing strategies. The price of Maersk has provided an overall price guidance for February, while the prices of the PA and OA alliances have declined. The shipping capacity in March has increased by 19% compared to February. There is an expectation of price support in March [5]. - For more distant - month contracts, the game over the resumption time is intense, and the volatility is expected to remain at a high level. The resumption of the Suez Canal is expected to be a gradual process. Maersk will adjust some routes to pass through the Red Sea and the Suez Canal. The delivery pressure of ultra - large vessels in the first half of 2026 is relatively small. If the Suez Canal does not resume operation in the first half of the year, the shipping capacity pressure will be relatively controllable, and higher freight rates can be expected. Investors can pay attention to the arbitrage opportunity of going long on EC2606 and short on EC2610 [6]. Summary by Related Catalogs 1. Futures Price - As of February 3, 2026, the total open interest of all container shipping index (Europe route) futures contracts is 58,854.00 lots, and the single - day trading volume is 34,792.00 lots. The closing prices of EC2602, EC2604, EC2606, EC2608, EC2610, and EC2512 contracts are 1737.80, 1237.90, 1533.70, 1597.90, 1128.60, and 1439.00 respectively [7]. 2. Spot Price - On February 1, 2026, the SCFI (Shanghai - Europe route) price is 1418 US dollars/TEU, the SCFI (Shanghai - West Coast of the United States) price is 1867 US dollars/FEU, and the SCFI (Shanghai - East Coast of the United States) price is 2605 US dollars/FEU. On February 2, the SCFIS (Shanghai - Europe) is 1792.14 points, and the SCFIS (Shanghai - West Coast of the United States) is 1101.40 points [7]. 3. Container Ship Capacity Supply - Static Supply: As of January 31, 2026, 6 container ships with a total capacity of 46,950 TEU have been delivered in 2026. Among them, 2 ships with a capacity of 12,000 - 16,999 TEU (total 28,000 TEU) and 1 ship with a capacity of over 17,000 TEU (17,148 TEU) have been delivered. In the remaining months of 2026, 12,000 - 16,999 TEU ships are expected to deliver 737,400 TEU (50 ships), 944,600 TEU (64 ships) in 2027, 1,212,000 TEU (82 ships) in 2028, and 415,400 TEU (29 ships) in 2029. For ships over 17,000 TEU, 192,900 TEU (8 ships) will be delivered in the remaining months of 2026, 862,800 TEU (40 ships) in 2027, 1,603,000 TEU (80 ships) in 2028, and 1,261,500 TEU (77 ships) in 2029. The delivery pressure of ultra - large vessels in 2026 is relatively small, with only 4 ships over 17,000 TEU delivered in the first half of 2026 [2][3]. - Dynamic Supply: The average weekly shipping capacity in February is 263,100 TEU, with the capacities in weeks 6, 7, 8, and 9 being 300,400 TEU, 312,700 TEU, 271,300 TEU, and 168,200 TEU respectively. The average weekly shipping capacity in March is 313,400 TEU, and in April is 279,000 TEU. There are 12 blank sailings in February and 6 blank sailings and 2 TBNs in March [3]. 4. Supply Chain - Maersk will adjust the ME11 route structure starting from mid - February 2026, passing through the Red Sea and the Suez Canal. If possible, it will also adjust the AE12 and AE15 services in subsequent stages to pass through these areas. The full resumption of the Red Sea route requires multiple conditions to be met, and the current detour has become the new normal for the customer supply chain [2][6]. 5. Demand and European Economy - The cancellation of VAT export tax rebates for products like photovoltaic by the Ministry of Finance and the State Taxation Administration on January 8, 2026, may disrupt the shipping rhythm of relevant industries and further affect the pricing strategies of shipping companies. Attention should be paid to whether the cargo volume from the Far East to Europe in February and March can increase significantly and whether the actual freight rates will be stronger than in normal years [5].