美政府停摆危机化解，市场等待美伊会谈落地

Report Industry Investment Rating - Gold: Cautiously bullish [7] - Silver: Neutral [7] - Arbitrage: Short the gold-silver ratio at high levels [8] - Options: On hold [8] Core Viewpoints - The US government shutdown crisis has been resolved, and the market is waiting for the US-Iran talks to take place. The gold price has stabilized and rebounded, and the upward logic of the overall price center remains smooth. The silver price has also stabilized and rebounded, and the rebound is slightly stronger than that of gold. The gold-silver ratio has changed significantly, and it is recommended to short the gold-silver ratio at high levels [1][7][5] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market Analysis - Geopolitical situation: The US-Iran talks are still scheduled to be held later this week. Iran hopes to move the talks from Istanbul to Oman and hold them bilaterally, but there has been no response from Iran yet [1] - US government: President Trump signed a government funding bill to end the partial government shutdown [1] - Federal Reserve: Fed Governor Milan said that the Fed needs to cut interest rates by more than 100 basis points this year. Richmond Fed President Barkin emphasized that monetary policy needs to remain cautious until inflation fully returns to the target [1] Futures Quotes and Trading Volumes - On February 3, 2026, the Shanghai Gold main contract opened at 1068.46 yuan/gram and closed at 1093.78 yuan/gram, a change of 8.45% from the previous trading day's close. The trading volume was 41,087 lots, and the open interest was 129,725 lots. The night session opened at 1100.02 yuan/gram and closed at 1108.80 yuan/gram, a 1.37% increase from the afternoon close [2] - On February 3, 2026, the Shanghai Silver main contract opened at 22,000.00 yuan/kilogram and closed at 21,446.00 yuan/kilogram, a change of -13.64% from the previous trading day's close. The trading volume was 931,055 lots, and the open interest was 226,336 lots. The night session opened at 22,000 yuan/kilogram and closed at 22,393 yuan/kilogram, a 4.42% increase from the afternoon close [2] US Treasury Yield and Spread Monitoring - On February 3, 2026, the US 10-year Treasury yield closed at 4.266%, unchanged from the previous trading day. The 10-year and 2-year spread was 0.797, also unchanged from the previous trading day [3] SHFE Gold and Silver Positions and Trading Volume Changes - On the Au2604 contract, the long positions changed by 1,997 lots compared to the previous day, and the short positions changed by -1,796 lots. The total trading volume of the Shanghai Gold contract on the previous trading day was 1,002,716 lots, a change of -20.15% from the previous trading day [3] - On the Ag2604 contract, the long positions changed by -25,039 lots, and the short positions changed by -10,892 lots. The total trading volume of the silver contract on the previous trading day was 1,619,975 lots, a change of 18.82% from the previous trading day [3] Precious Metal ETF Position Tracking - The gold ETF position was 1,087.10 tons, unchanged from the previous trading day. The silver ETF position was 16,547 tons, an increase of 1,024 tons from the previous trading day [4] Precious Metal Arbitrage Tracking - On February 3, 2026, the domestic premium for gold was -37.63 yuan/gram, and the domestic premium for silver was 4,258.64 yuan/kilogram. The price ratio of the SHFE gold and silver main contracts was about 51.00, a change of 25.57% from the previous trading day. The foreign market gold-silver ratio was 57.15, a change of 5.64% from the previous trading day [5] Fundamentals - On the previous trading day (February 3, 2026), the trading volume of gold on the Shanghai Gold Exchange T+d market was 53,896 kilograms, a change of -37.51% from the previous trading day. The trading volume of silver was 686,290 kilograms, a change of 223.83% from the previous trading day. The gold delivery volume was 11,872 kilograms, and the silver delivery volume was 30 kilograms [6] Strategy - Gold: Cautiously bullish. The gold price has stabilized and rebounded, and the upward logic of the overall price center remains smooth. The Au2604 contract may oscillate in the range of 1,000 yuan/gram - 1,200 yuan/gram [7] - Silver: Neutral. The silver price has also stabilized and rebounded, and the rebound is slightly stronger than that of gold. The Ag2604 contract may oscillate in the range of 21,000 yuan/kilogram - 23,500 yuan/kilogram [7] - Arbitrage: Short the gold-silver ratio at high levels [8] - Options: On hold [8]