警惕上游价格回调风险

Group 1: Report Core View - The report warns of the risk of price corrections in the upstream industry, covering production and service sectors, and analyzes the current situation of upstream, midstream, and downstream industries [1][2] Group 2: Industry Overview Production Industry - On February 3, 2026, the first No. 1 Central Document of the "15th Five-Year Plan" was released, aiming to promote rural revitalization and agricultural modernization [1] Service Industry - On February 4, 2026, the central bank will conduct an 800 billion yuan 3 - month (91 - day) repurchase operation to maintain liquidity in the banking system [1] Group 3: Upstream Industry Situation - Non - ferrous metals: Nickel and aluminum prices continue to decline, with nickel down 4.89% and aluminum down 2.40% on February 3 [2][37] - Agriculture: Egg prices are correcting, but on February 3, the spot price of eggs increased by 7.39% [2][37] - Chemical industry: Chemical product prices have fluctuated recently, with PTA down 1.77%, polyethylene up 1.59%, and urea up 1.72% on February 3 [37] Group 4: Mid - stream Industry Situation - Chemical industry: PX operating rate is at a high level [2] - Energy: Power plant coal consumption is at a low level [2] - Agriculture: The operating rate of pig products is rising [2] Group 5: Down - stream Industry Situation - Real estate: The sales of commercial housing in first - and second - tier cities have seasonally declined [2] - Service: The number of domestic flights is increasing [2] Group 6: Key Industry Price Indicators (February 3) Agriculture - Corn: Spot price is 2268.6 yuan/ton, down 0.19% [37] - Palm oil: Spot price is 9044.0 yuan/ton, down 1.74% [37] - Cotton: Spot price is 16002.3 yuan/ton, up 0.38% [37] - Pork: Average wholesale price is 18.6 yuan/kg, down 0.27% [37] Non - ferrous Metals - Copper: Spot price is 101388.3 yuan/ton, down 0.13% [37] - Zinc: Spot price is 25040.0 yuan/ton, up 1.16% [37] - Aluminum: Spot prices are 23306.7 yuan/ton and 16493.8 yuan/ton, down 2.40% and 2.22% respectively [37] Ferrous Metals - Rebar: Spot price is 3181.0 yuan/ton, down 0.72% [37] - Iron ore: Spot price is 805.0 yuan/ton, down 1.20% [37] - Wire rod: Spot price is 3385.0 yuan/ton, down 1.17% [37] Non - metals - Glass: Spot price is 13.2 yuan/square meter, up 1.38% [37] - Natural rubber: Spot price is 16025.0 yuan/ton, down 0.77% [37] - China Plastic City Price Index: 791.8, up 0.94% [37] Energy - WTI crude oil: Spot price is 62.1 US dollars/barrel, up 2.49% [37] - Brent crude oil: Spot price is 66.3 US dollars/barrel, up 2.36% [37] - Liquefied natural gas: Spot price is 3678.0 yuan/ton, up 0.66% [37] - Coal: Price is 801.0 yuan/ton, down 0.37% [37] Chemical Industry - PTA: Spot price is 5173.9 yuan/ton, down 1.77% [37] - Polyethylene: Spot price is 7025.0 yuan/ton, up 1.59% [37] - Urea: Spot price is 1777.5 yuan/ton, up 1.72% [37] - Soda ash: Spot price is 1201.4 yuan/ton, down 0.12% [37] Real Estate - National cement price index: 132.7, down 0.58% [37] - Building materials composite index: 114.3 points, down 0.45% [37] - National concrete price index: 89.9 points, down 0.37% [37]