地缘局势边际缓和，关注美伊谈判进展

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - High-sulfur fuel oil: Neutral, short-term wait-and-see; focus on the progress of US-Iran negotiations [2] - Low-sulfur fuel oil: Neutral, short-term wait-and-see; focus on the progress of US-Iran negotiations [2] - Cross-variety: None [2] - Cross-period: Pay attention to the opportunity to go long the spread between FU2603 and FU2605 at low prices (positive spread) [2] - Spot-futures: None [2] - Options: None [2] Group 2: Core Viewpoints - The geopolitical situation has marginally eased, and the market is waiting for the results of the US-Iran negotiations. Before a relatively clear result or signal is reached, the market may be repeatedly disturbed by news, and caution is needed due to the approaching Spring Festival [1] - The high-sulfur fuel oil market shows a pattern of "strong in the East and weak in the West". The spot market in the Asia-Pacific region has tightened marginally, Singapore's inventory has declined continuously, and the domestic registered warehouse receipts have decreased. Excluding macro and geopolitical disturbances, the market structure has short-term support [1] - The overall market contradiction of low-sulfur fuel oil is limited. Recently, the exports of Kuwait and Nigeria have rebounded, and the decline in RFCC unit maintenance has digested some low-sulfur oil components [1] Group 3: Market Analysis - The main contract of Shanghai Futures Exchange fuel oil futures closed down 3.81% at 2,701 yuan/ton, and the main contract of INE low-sulfur fuel oil futures closed down 2.28% at 3,168 yuan/ton [1] - Due to the planned negotiations between Iran and the US on February 6, the geopolitical situation has marginally eased, and crude oil prices have significantly corrected this week, driving down the prices of energy and chemical products including fuel oil. Since Iran is a major producer of high-sulfur fuel oil, FU is more sensitive to geopolitical reactions than LU [1] Group 4: Strategy - High-sulfur fuel oil: Neutral, short-term wait-and-see; focus on the progress of US-Iran negotiations [2] - Low-sulfur fuel oil: Neutral, short-term wait-and-see; focus on the progress of US-Iran negotiations [2] - Cross-variety: None [2] - Cross-period: Pay attention to the opportunity to go long the spread between FU2603 and FU2605 at low prices (positive spread) [2] - Spot-futures: None [2] - Options: None [2]