铜价逐步企稳，但节前或难维持持续偏强

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Copper: Cautiously bullish [7] - Arbitrage: On hold [7] - Options: Sell put options [7] 2. Core View of the Report After a significant decline, copper prices have stabilized and rebounded with the gold price. However, due to the approaching Spring Festival holiday, demand is weakening. For enterprises with buy-hedging needs, they can conduct a small amount of hedging, but the position should not be too heavy. It is expected that the copper price will range between RMB 98,000/ton and RMB 110,000/ton before the Spring Festival [7] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market On February 3, 2026, the main Shanghai copper futures contract opened at RMB 101,490/ton and closed at RMB 104,500/ton, a 6.01% increase from the previous trading day's close. In the night session, it opened at RMB 104,950/ton and closed at RMB 105,180/ton, a 3.49% increase from the afternoon close [1] 3.2 Spot Market In the morning of the previous day, spot copper holders lowered the premium. The mainstream flat copper was quoted at a premium of around RMB 400/ton. The prices in Shanghai and Changzhou markets for some brands dropped to a premium of around RMB 350/ton and were then pressured to RMB 320 - 340/ton for transactions. The mainstream flat copper was still quoted at a premium of RMB 380 - 400/ton with tight supply. Good copper was at a premium of around RMB 420/ton. In the second trading session, some sources were at a premium of RMB 300 - 320/ton, which stimulated downstream purchases. The market's purchase sentiment index rose to 3.18, and the sales sentiment index rose to 3.29. Spot copper merchants were worried about the further decline of the premium and actively sold to lock in profits [2] 3.3 Important News and Information 3.3.1 Macro and Geopolitical The US White House stated that the talks with Iran later this week will proceed as planned. Iran hopes to move the talks to Oman and hold them bilaterally. The US government ended its partial shutdown after the President signed the appropriation bill [3] 3.3.2 Federal Reserve Fed Governor Milan believes that the Fed needs to cut interest rates by more than 100 basis points this year, while Richmond Fed President Barkin emphasizes that monetary policy should remain cautious until inflation fully returns to the target [3] 3.3.3 Mining Rome Resources reported encouraging results for copper and tin from metallurgical tests on its Bisie North project in the Democratic Republic of Congo. Drilling in Kalayi is ongoing, and the company will move to Mont Agoma next month [4] 3.3.4 Domestic Policy The deputy secretary-general of the China Non - Ferrous Metals Industry Association proposed to improve the copper resource reserve system, including expanding the national strategic reserve and exploring a commercial reserve mechanism, and considering including copper concentrates in the reserve [4][5] 3.3.5 Consumption In January 2026, copper product consumption showed pre - holiday rush but with sector differentiation. The power sector was supported by State Grid orders, the home appliance industry was strong due to the year - end peak season, the automotive sector was stable, while the construction and hardware sectors were dragged down by the real estate slump. High copper prices suppressed downstream purchases, and the overall stocking rhythm was earlier and more cautious than in previous years. In February, with the approaching Spring Festival, consumption is expected to enter a seasonal trough [5][6] 3.3.6 Inventory and Warehouse Receipts LME warehouse receipts decreased by 300 tons to 176,125 tons, SHFE warehouse receipts increased by 494 tons to 159,021 tons. On February 3, the domestic electrolytic copper spot inventory was 33.04 million tons, an increase of 0.76 million tons from the previous week [6] 3.4 Price and Related Data | | SMM:1 Copper (Premium Copper) | SMM:1 Copper (Flat Copper) | SMM:1 Copper (Wet - Process Copper) | Yangshan Premium | LME (0 - 3) | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Spot (Premium/Discount) (Today) | - 120 - - 100 | - 130 | - 230 | 43 | - 59 | | Spot (Premium/Discount) (Yesterday) | - 130 - - 110 | - 150 | - 240 | 45 | - 90 | | Spot (Premium/Discount) (Last Week) | - 265 - - 235 | - 285 | - 335 | 22 | - 71 | | Spot (Premium/Discount) (One Month Ago) | - 190 - - 150 | - 225 | - 285 | 49 | 39 | | | LME | SHFE | COMEX | SHFE Warehouse Receipts | LME Cancelled Warehouse Receipts Ratio | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Inventory (Today) | 176,125 | 233,004 | 525,962 | 159,021 | 21.68% | | Inventory (Yesterday) | 174,675 | | 524,102 | 158,527 | 23.89% | | Inventory (Last Week) | 172,350 | 225,937 | 513,145 | 144,908 | 26.23% | | Inventory (One Month Ago) | 142,550 | | 453,448 | 81,775 | 24.98% | | | CU05 - CU02 (Continuous Third - Near Month) | CU03 - CU02 (Main - Near Month) | CU03/AL03 | CU03/ZN03 | Import Profit | SHFE - LME Ratio (Main) | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Today | 690 | 360 | 4.39 | 4.19 | - 536 | 7.64 | | Yesterday | 880 | 890 | 4.28 | 4.02 | - 532 | 7.93 | | Last Week | 830 | 320 | 4.22 | 4.11 | - 655 | 7.73 | | One Month Ago | - 420 | - 560 | 4.29 | 4.22 | - 792 | 7.86 | [26][27][28]