节前需求存走弱预期

Report Summary 1. Industry Investment Rating No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - The market anticipates a weakening in pre - holiday demand. For PE, due to the decline in international oil prices, the cost - side support for plastics has weakened. With an increase in supply and a decrease in demand, the polyolefin market has corrected. For PP, the cost - side support of propane and oil has declined, and the market sentiment is cautious, leading to a correction in both futures and spot prices [2][3]. - The current supply - demand fundamentals of polyolefins are weak. For PE, there is an expected increase in supply pressure, and downstream demand is in the off - season with weak order follow - up. For PP, the supply side lacks strong support, and demand is expected to decline seasonally. The market is affected by cost - side and macro - sentiment fluctuations, and the sustainability of the rebound is limited. The report recommends a wait - and - see approach for L/PP [2][3][4]. 3. Summary by Directory Market News and Important Data - Price and Basis: The closing price of the L main contract is 6865 yuan/ton (-13), and that of the PP main contract is 6730 yuan/ton (+16). LL North China spot is 6730 yuan/ton (-70), LL East China spot is 6800 yuan/ton (-50), and PP East China spot is 6680 yuan/ton (+0). LL North China basis is -135 yuan/ton (-57), LL East China basis is -65 yuan/ton (-37), and PP East China basis is -50 yuan/ton (-16) [1]. - Upstream Supply: The PE operating rate is 85.4% (+0.7%), and the PP operating rate is 74.8% (-1.2%) [1]. - Production Profit: The PE oil - based production profit is 145.4 yuan/ton (+260.7), the PP oil - based production profit is -264.6 yuan/ton (+260.7), and the PDH - based PP production profit is -388.0 yuan/ton (+117.3) [1]. - Imports and Exports: The LL import profit is 11.4 yuan/ton (-65.3), the PP import profit is -283.9 yuan/ton (+44.8), and the PP export profit is -79.8 US dollars/ton (-5.7) [1]. - Downstream Demand: The PE downstream agricultural film operating rate is 34.6% (-1.8%), the PE downstream packaging film operating rate is 42.1% (-2.9%), the PP downstream plastic weaving operating rate is 42.0% (+0.0%), and the PP downstream BOPP film operating rate is 64.2% (+0.2%) [1]. Market Analysis - PE: The decline in international oil prices has led to a weakening of cost - side support. In terms of supply, there are many restarted devices, limited planned maintenance in February, and an increase in imported resources. In terms of demand, it is in the off - season, with a decline in overall downstream operating rates and weak order follow - up. The supply - demand fundamentals are weak, and the de - stocking pressure is large [2]. - PP: The cost - side support of propane and oil has declined, and the market sentiment is cautious. On the supply side, PDH is in a deep loss, but there is limited planned maintenance in the future, and some devices are resuming production. On the demand side, it is in the off - season, and there is a seasonal decline in demand with limited new orders. The supply - demand structure is weak, and the de - stocking pressure may limit the rebound space [3]. Strategy - Single - sided: Adopt a wait - and - see approach for L/PP. The short - term cost - side fluctuations are strong, and the macro - and capital - side disturbances are increasing. The current supply - demand fundamentals of polyolefins are weak, and the sustainability of the rebound may be limited [4]. - Inter - period: No strategy is provided [5]. - Inter - variety: No strategy is provided [5].