长丝价格坚挺，产销维持低位

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the given content. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Cost side: Recently, it has been fluctuating around the Iran situation. On Monday, crude oil prices dropped significantly, with the geopolitical premium being reversed. Brent oil prices fell from around $70 per barrel at the end of last month to around $65 - $66 per barrel. There are signs of a cooling of geopolitical risks [1]. - PX: The PXN was $310 per ton in the previous trading session (a month - on - month change of -$6.88 per ton). The short - term fundamentals are weak, but the medium - term outlook is good. Attention should be paid to PX maintenance and import conditions [1]. - TA: The spot basis of the TA main contract is -68 yuan/ton (a month - on - month change of +3 yuan/ton), the PTA spot processing fee is 376 yuan/ton (a month - on - month change of -48 yuan/ton), and the processing fee on the main contract's disk is 423 yuan/ton (a month - on - month change of +21 yuan/ton). In the long - term, as the cycle of concentrated capacity release ends, the PTA processing fee is expected to gradually improve [2]. - Demand: The polyester operating rate is 84.2% (a month - on - month decrease of 2.0%). The weaving load has been accelerating its decline, and downstream enterprises will start to have concentrated holidays around the end of January. Polyester load is accelerating its decline, and the Spring Festival maintenance plans are being gradually implemented [2]. - PF: The spot production profit is 37 yuan/ton (a month - on - month increase of 41 yuan/ton). Demand is weak before the Spring Festival, and the load is gradually declining [2]. - PR: The spot processing fee for bottle chips is 619 yuan/ton (a month - on - month change of +35 yuan/ton). The Spring Festival maintenance plans of polyester bottle chip factories are being gradually implemented, inventory reduction before the Spring Festival is smooth, and the processing fee for polyester bottle chips has rebounded [2]. - Strategy: For PX/PTA/PF/PR, it is recommended to hold a light position and wait and see in the short term and go long on dips for hedging in the long term [3]. 3. Summary According to the Catalog Price and Basis - Figures include TA main contract, basis, and inter - period spread trends; PX main contract trends, basis, and inter - period spread; PTA East China spot basis; and short - fiber 1.56D*38mm semi - bright natural white basis [8][9][11] Upstream Profits and Spreads - Figures cover PX processing fee PXN, PTA spot processing fee, South Korean xylene isomerization profit, and South Korean STDP selective disproportionation profit [17][21] International Spreads and Import - Export Profits - Figures involve toluene US - Asia spread, toluene South Korean FOB - Japanese naphtha CFR, and PTA export profit [23][25] Upstream PX and PTA Start - up - Figures show China's PTA load, South Korea's PTA load, Taiwan's PTA load, China's PX load, and Asia's PX load [26][29][31] Social Inventory and Warehouse Receipts - Figures include PTA weekly social inventory, PX monthly social inventory, PTA total warehouse receipts + forecast volume, PTA warehouse warehouse receipt inventory, PX warehouse receipt inventory, and PF warehouse receipt inventory [36][39][40] Downstream Polyester Load - Figures cover filament production and sales, short - fiber production and sales, polyester load, direct - spinning filament load, polyester staple fiber load, polyester bottle chip load, filament DTY factory inventory days, filament FDY factory inventory days, filament POY factory inventory days, Jiangsu and Zhejiang loom operating rate, Jiangsu and Zhejiang texturing machine operating rate, and Jiangsu and Zhejiang printing and dyeing operating rate [46][48][56] PF Detailed Data - Figures include 1.4D physical inventory, 1.4D equity inventory, polyester staple fiber load, polyester staple fiber factory equity inventory days, recycled cotton - type staple fiber load, original - recycled spread, pure polyester yarn operating rate, pure polyester yarn production profit, polyester - cotton yarn operating rate, polyester - cotton yarn processing fee, pure polyester yarn factory in - house inventory available days, and polyester - cotton yarn factory in - house inventory available days [71][76][84] PR Fundamental Detailed Data - Figures involve polyester bottle chip load, bottle chip factory bottle chip inventory days, bottle chip spot processing fee, bottle chip export processing fee, bottle chip export profit, East China water bottle chips - recycled 3A - grade white bottle chips, bottle chip next - month spread, and bottle chip next - next - month spread [88][90][96]