液氯价格上涨，氧化铝下调烧碱采购价

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The overall supply - demand pattern of the PVC market remains weak, but the recent "rush to export" sentiment supports the spot price. The expectation of the mercury - free transformation in the long - term may push the PVC price to run strongly. The supply - demand of caustic soda is also weak, with inventory accumulation in Shandong. The demand expectation from alumina is decreasing, and the export orders are sluggish [3] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market News and Important Data PVC - Futures Price and Basis: The closing price of the PVC main contract is 5071 yuan/ton (+57), the East China basis is - 291 yuan/ton (-57), and the South China basis is - 201 yuan/ton (-37) [1] - Spot Price: The East China calcium carbide method quotes 4780 yuan/ton (+0), and the South China calcium carbide method quotes 4870 yuan/ton (+20) [1] - Upstream Production Profit: The semi - coke price is 735 yuan/ton (+0), the calcium carbide price is 2930 yuan/ton (+0), the calcium carbide profit is 52 yuan/ton (+0), the PVC calcium carbide method production gross profit is - 744 yuan/ton (+55), the PVC ethylene method production gross profit is 21 yuan/ton (+70), and the PVC export profit is - 12.0 US dollars/ton (-0.4) [1] - PVC Inventory and Operation Rate: The in - factory inventory of PVC is 29.0 tons (-1.8), the social inventory of PVC is 58.5 tons (+0.8), the operation rate of the PVC calcium carbide method is 79.98% (-0.16%), the operation rate of the PVC ethylene method is 70.61% (-2.43%), and the overall PVC operation rate is 77.13% (-0.85%) [1] - Downstream Order Situation: The pre - sales volume of production enterprises is 96.0 tons (+7.6) [1] Caustic Soda - Futures Price and Basis: The closing price of the SH main contract is 1969 yuan/ton (-35), and the basis of 32% liquid caustic soda in Shandong is - 125 yuan/ton (+13) [1] - Spot Price: The price of 32% liquid caustic soda in Shandong is 590 yuan/ton (-7), and the price of 50% liquid caustic soda in Shandong is 1010 yuan/ton (+0) [2] - Upstream Production Profit: The single - product profit of caustic soda in Shandong is 827 yuan/ton (-22). The comprehensive profit of chlor - alkali in Shandong (0.8 tons of liquid chlorine) is 266.0 yuan/ton (+58.1), the comprehensive profit of chlor - alkali in Shandong (1 ton of PVC) is - 535.96 yuan/ton (+28.13), and the comprehensive profit of chlor - alkali in the Northwest (1 ton of PVC) is 650.29 yuan/ton (+0.00) [2] - Caustic Soda Inventory and Operation Rate: The factory inventory of liquid caustic soda is 52.03 tons (+1.07), the factory inventory of flake caustic soda is 2.71 tons (-0.08), and the operation rate of caustic soda is 87.40% (-0.30%) [2] - Downstream Operation Rate of Caustic Soda: The operation rate of alumina is 84.77% (-0.41%), the operation rate of printing and dyeing in East China is 50.65% (-5.89%), and the operation rate of viscose staple fiber is 88.43% (+0.00%) [2] Market Analysis PVC - The export tax rebate for PVC was cancelled on April 1st, and the "rush to export" led to high - level export orders. The overall supply - demand pattern of the PVC market remains weak. The supply is abundant with no new maintenance enterprises this week. The downstream operation rate is flat for pipes and profiles and decreases for films, with a downward expectation during the Spring Festival. The social inventory accumulates slightly and is at a high level year - on - year. The upstream chlor - alkali production profit recovers slightly, and the cost of calcium carbide rises while the semi - coke price drops slightly. The PVC warehouse receipts are at a high level, and there is still hedging pressure on the market. The supply - demand is weak, but the "rush to export" supports the spot price, and the long - term mercury - free transformation expectation may push up the price [3] Caustic Soda - The spot price of caustic soda continues to be weak. The supply - demand of caustic soda is weak, and the inventory in Shandong accumulates. The overall supply - side operation rate is at a high level with no new maintenance enterprises in the future. The downstream purchasing sentiment is average. Alumina plants operate stably but have low unloading efficiency. Some alumina plants have reduced the purchase price of caustic soda. The long - term demand expectation from alumina is decreasing, and the commissioning progress of alumina in Guangxi is delayed, leading to weak purchasing power. Non - aluminum industries enter the seasonal off - season, and some purchase for pre - Spring Festival stocking at low prices. The export orders are still sluggish. After the price of liquid chlorine drops, the downstream purchasing improves and the price rises again, weakening the comprehensive cost support of chlor - alkali. The caustic soda warehouse receipts suppress the market [3] Strategy PVC - Single - side: Oscillation - Inter - period: Go long on the V05 - 09 spread when it is low - Inter - product: None [4] Caustic Soda - Single - side: Oscillation - Inter - period: Go long on the SH04 - 05 spread when it is low - Inter - product: None [5]