伊朗局势波澜再起，油价再度反弹

Group 1: Market News and Important Data - On February 3, the US government is preparing to issue a general license allowing companies to extract oil in Venezuela, a step to attract US - related companies and revive the country's energy industry. Another license allowing companies to buy and sell Venezuelan crude was issued last week [1]. - On February 3, the US Trade Representative said India agreed to cut tariffs on US exports from 13.5% to zero for industrial products, and they also reached a consensus on reducing India's technical non - tariff trade barriers. The US has been monitoring India's reduction of Russian oil purchases [1]. - In recent months, India has cut Russian oil imports. At least three refiners are seeking government clarification, two of which have suspended purchases. India's oil minister expects imports from Russia to continue to decline, and refiners want to increase supplies from Canada and the US [1]. - On February 3, crude oil prices rose slightly in Asian morning trading due to the US - India trade agreement. Trump said the US would cut tariffs on India to 18%, and India would stop buying Russian oil and increase purchases from the US and Venezuela. The US would cancel the 25% extra tariff on India's Russian oil imports, which may trigger more active purchasing by Indian refiners [1]. Group 2: Investment Logic - The situation in Iran has taken a turn with an Iranian drone shot down by the US military. The US - India agreement will lead to a 1 - million - barrel - per - day reduction in Russia oil consumption capacity and an increase in compliant oil purchases, supporting oil prices. However, the pace of India's procurement shift is unknown, and in the short term, the market surplus is concentrated in sanctioned oil, while the supply - demand of compliant oil will tighten [2]. Group 3: Strategy - Oil prices will fluctuate in the short - term, with geopolitical events having a large impact. Control risks, and consider a medium - term short - position allocation [3]