不同情境下，会有多少存款“超额”流出？

1. Report Industry Investment Rating There is no information about the industry investment rating in the provided content. 2. Core Viewpoints - The stock market has been active recently, and there is a discussion about whether the strengthening of residents' risk preference can bring incremental funds to the stock market, forming a "stock - bond seesaw" effect. The report assesses this possibility by reviewing the deposit transfer in Q3 2025, calculating the maturity volume of time deposits in 2026, and reviewing the flow of funds to the stock market or equity funds during two periods of decline in RMB deposit balances in the past 15 years [1][10]. - In Q3 2025, there was a phenomenon of residents' deposit transfer. The funds were first allocated to low - risk assets such as bank wealth management products and money market funds, and then flowed into the stock market after the equity market index reached a key point [2][16]. - From the perspective of the end of 2025, the maturity amount of financial institutions' time deposits in 2026 is about 103.1 trillion yuan. Three scenarios are assumed to estimate the "excess value" of deposit decline. The report tends to the neutral scenario, where the excess outflow of deposits in 2026 is 27.8 trillion yuan [5]. - During the two periods of significant decline in deposit balances, funds do not necessarily flow into the stock market. The current situation is "stock up, bond stable", and the report estimates that in the next 2 - 3 years, funds are expected to gradually flow into the equity market [4][38]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 2025 Q3: Whether There Was a Residents' Deposit Transfer - In 2025, the quarterly - on - quarterly growth rate of the balance of various deposits of financial institutions decreased quarter by quarter, indicating a phased slowdown in deposit growth momentum. In Q3 2025, the total new deposits of residents decreased by 620 billion yuan compared with the same period in 2024, a decrease of 24.03%, showing an obvious sub - seasonal downward trend, which is evidence of deposit transfer [11]. - In Q3 2025, the stock market showed a structural recovery, and the share of equity funds increased. The bank wealth management market reached a record high, and the money - market fund market fluctuated and rose. The funds were first allocated to low - risk assets and then flowed into the stock market, showing a "low - risk first, equity later" asset re - allocation path [14][15][16]. 3.2 Financial Institutions' Time Deposit Maturity Rhythm and Scenario Calculation - A sample of banks with complete data is selected. In late 2024, the total deposit scale of the sample banks was about 207.5 trillion yuan, accounting for about 69% of the total deposits of financial institutions. The time deposits were 140.4 trillion yuan, accounting for about 84% of the time deposits of financial institutions. Based on the maturity rhythm of the sample banks, the maturity amount of financial institutions' time deposits in 2026 is estimated to be about 103.1 trillion yuan, with about 45.4 trillion yuan maturing in Q1 and about 57.7 trillion yuan maturing from Q2 to Q4 [23][25]. - Three scenarios are assumed to predict the total amount of time deposits at the end of 2026 and estimate the "excess value" of deposit decline. In the low - growth scenario, the excess outflow is 32.3 trillion yuan; in the medium - growth scenario, it is 27.8 trillion yuan; in the high - growth scenario, it is 21.5 trillion yuan [26][27]. - The "structural interest rate cut + broad credit" policy may lead to a decline in deposit interest rates, and funds are expected to flow into the equity market in the future [28]. 3.3 Two Periods of Obvious Decline in Deposit Balances: Funds Do Not Necessarily Flow into the Stock Market - Two significant slow - down periods in the growth rate of financial institutions' deposit balances were observed in 2014 and 2024. In both 2014Q3 and 2024Q2, the new deposit scale of residents showed a sub - seasonal decline, indicating that the marginal change in residents' deposit behavior was the core driving factor [29][32]. - From 2014 - 2015, deposit transfer drove a bull market in the stock market, and the marginal impact of incremental funds on the equity market was significantly higher than that on low - risk assets. In Q2 2024, although the deposit balance growth slowed down, funds did not flow into the stock market in large quantities but mainly flowed into money - market funds and bank wealth management products [35][36].