政府债周报（02/01）：特殊再融资债发行加速-20260204

Report Investment Rating - Not provided in the report Core Viewpoints - The issuance of special refinancing bonds is accelerating, with significant amounts of special refinancing bonds and special new special-purpose bonds being disclosed [8] - There are differences between the planned and actual issuance of local government bonds in 2026, and the net financing amounts vary across different months [9] Summary by Directory 1. Issuance Forecast and Review - 2/2 - 2/8 Forecast: Local government bonds are expected to be issued worth 5796.73 billion yuan, including 2098.11 billion yuan in new bonds (755.35 billion yuan in new general bonds and 1342.76 billion yuan in new special bonds) and 3698.61 billion yuan in refinancing bonds (442.82 billion yuan in refinancing general bonds and 3255.79 billion yuan in refinancing special bonds) [6] - 1/26 - 2/1 Review: A total of 4392.75 billion yuan in local government bonds were issued, including 2322.72 billion yuan in new bonds (392.03 billion yuan in new general bonds and 1930.69 billion yuan in new special bonds) and 2070.03 billion yuan in refinancing bonds (847.84 billion yuan in refinancing general bonds and 1222.19 billion yuan in refinancing special bonds) [7] 2. Special Bond Issuance Progress - Special Refinancing Bonds: As of February 1st, the fifth round's second batch of special refinancing bonds totaled 20000.00 billion yuan, and the third batch totaled 5599.98 billion yuan, with an additional 3023.79 billion yuan to be newly disclosed next week. The top three regions in terms of the third - batch disclosure scale are Jiangsu (800.00 billion yuan), Zhejiang (564.00 billion yuan), and Henan (482.95 billion yuan) [8] - Special New Special - Purpose Bonds: As of February 1st, 95.88 billion yuan of special new special - purpose bonds for 2026 have been disclosed, and 25546.72 billion yuan have been disclosed since 2023. The top three regions in terms of the total disclosure scale since 2023 are Jiangsu (2440.35 billion yuan), Hubei (1377.69 billion yuan), and Henan (1325.34 billion yuan), while the top three in 2026 are Sichuan (62.58 billion yuan), Shandong (22.30 billion yuan), and Zhejiang (11.00 billion yuan) [8] 3. Local Issuance Plans and Actual Issuance - 2026 Plans: In January, the planned issuance was 8059 billion yuan, an increase of 2529.96 billion yuan compared to the same period in 2025, with an actual disclosure of 8633 billion yuan, a planned repayment of 849 billion yuan, and a net financing of 8059 billion yuan. In February, the planned issuance is 8071 billion yuan, a decrease of 3818.89 billion yuan compared to the same period in 2025, with a planned repayment of 1662 billion yuan and a net financing of 6409 billion yuan. In March, the planned issuance is 8463 billion yuan, a decrease of 1353.98 billion yuan compared to the same period in 2025, with a planned repayment of 4191 billion yuan and a net financing of 4272 billion yuan [9] 4. Weighted Average Issuance Term - This week, the weighted average issuance term of local government bonds is 17.31 years, and next week it is 16.12 years. As of January 30th, it is 17.66 years, a 7.7% increase compared to the same period in 2025 [10] 5. Local Government Bond Investment and Trading - One - Two - Level Spread: The report presents the one - level and two - level spreads of local government bonds, as well as the two - level spreads by region [41][42] 6. New Special - Purpose Bond Allocations - The report provides a monthly statistics of the allocation of new special - purpose bonds, with the latest month's statistics considering only the issued new bonds [44]