玉米淀粉日报-20260204

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The supply pressure of US corn is weakening, and it is expected to fluctuate strongly at the bottom. The supply of domestic corn is stable, but there is still a risk of price decline due to the seasonal selling pressure in Northeast China. The price of starch is mainly affected by the price of corn and downstream stocking. The inventory of corn starch has decreased, and the price is expected to stabilize in the short term [4][7][8]. - The trading strategy suggests going short on 03 corn and going long on 07 and 05 corn at low prices. An arbitrage strategy of 3 - 7 corn reverse spread is also recommended. For options, a short - term cumulative put strategy with rolling operations is proposed [9][10][11]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Data - Futures Market: The closing prices of corn and corn starch futures contracts show different trends. For example, C2601 closed at 2257 with a 0.13% increase, and CS2605 closed at 2577 with a 0.19% increase. The trading volume and open interest of each contract also changed. For instance, the trading volume of C2601 increased by 61.30%, and that of C2605 decreased by 16.07% [2]. - Spot and Basis: The spot prices of corn and starch in different regions are stable, with no price changes on the day. The basis of corn and starch in various regions shows different values. For example, the basis of corn in Qinggang is - 164, and the basis of starch in Longfeng is 153 [2]. - Spread: The spreads of corn and starch in different periods and between different varieties also changed. For example, the spread of C01 - C05 is - 14 with a 2 - point increase, and the spread of CS09 - C09 is 302 with a 2 - point decrease [2]. 3.2 Market Analysis - Corn: The US corn is rebounding from the bottom but still fluctuating at a low level. The import profit of foreign corn has increased. The spot price of corn in Northeast China is falling, while that in North China is stable. The price difference between North China and Northeast China is expanding. The demand for domestic breeding is stable, and the inventory of downstream feed enterprises is increasing. The market is concerned about the seasonal selling pressure of corn in Northeast China before the Spring Festival and the inventory - building situation of downstream enterprises [4][7]. - Starch: The number of vehicles arriving at Shandong deep - processing plants has increased, and the spot price of corn in Shandong is stable. The inventory of corn starch has decreased, with the current inventory at 99.5 million tons, a decrease of 3.3 million tons from last week, a monthly decrease of 3.2%, and a year - on - year decrease of 24.9%. The price of starch is mainly affected by the price of corn and downstream stocking. The price difference between corn and starch is at a low level. The 03 starch contract is fluctuating at the bottom following the trend of corn [8]. 3.3 Trading Strategy - Unilateral Trading: There is support for 03 US corn at 420 cents per bushel. It is recommended to go long on 07 and 05 corn at low prices [10]. - Arbitrage: A 3 - 7 corn reverse spread is recommended [11]. - Options Strategy: A short - term cumulative put strategy with rolling operations is proposed [12]. 3.4 Corn Options - On February 4, 2026, the closing price of the C2605 - P - 2240.DCE option contract was 24.50, and the closing price of the C2603 - P - 2200.DCE option contract was 3.50 [14]. 3.5 Related Attachments - The attachments include six figures, showing the North Port corn closing price, corn 05 contract basis, corn 5 - 9 spread, corn starch 5 - 9 spread, corn starch 05 contract basis, and corn starch 05 contract spread, respectively [16][17][22].