Group 1: Investment Rating - No investment rating information is provided in the report. Group 2: Core Viewpoints - International sugar prices fell to previous lows and then rose significantly. The market's focus has shifted to the Northern Hemisphere, where most sugar production is in an increasing cycle. India's production may exceed expectations, but several institutions predict a decline in sugar production and an increase in consumption for the 2026/27 season [8]. - In the domestic market, sugar is in the peak pressing period, and this season's production is likely to increase significantly, putting pressure on the supply side. However, due to the sharp rebound of international sugar prices and the easing of domestic macro - sentiment, the pressure on domestic sugar prices is expected to ease, and prices are likely to fluctuate at the bottom [8]. - For trading strategies, in the unilateral aspect, international sugar prices are expected to fluctuate at the bottom, and the domestic Zhengzhou sugar May contract is also expected to do the same. In the aspects of arbitrage and options, it is recommended to wait and see [9][10][11]. Group 3: Summary by Directory 3.1 Data Analysis - Futures Disk: SR09 closed at 5,214 with an increase of 37 (0.71%), trading volume of 25,546 (a decrease of 14,196), and an open interest of 116,869 (an increase of 696); SR01 closed at 5,318 with an increase of 38 (0.72%), trading volume of 968 (an increase of 619), and an open interest of 2,391 (an increase of 743); SR05 closed at 5,210 with an increase of 43 (0.83%), trading volume of 215,851 (a decrease of 68,473), and an open interest of 451,761 (an increase of 262) [3]. - Spot Prices: The spot price in Liuzhou was 5360 yuan/ton (unchanged), in Kunming 5150 yuan/ton (a decrease of 10 yuan/ton), in Wuhan 5620 yuan/ton (unchanged), in Nanning 5320 yuan/ton (unchanged), in Bayuquan 5460 yuan/ton (unchanged), in Rizhao 5415 yuan/ton (unchanged), and in Xi'an 5750 yuan/ton (a decrease of 10 yuan/ton). The corresponding basis was 150, - 60, 410, 110, 250, 205, and 540 respectively [3]. - Monthly Spreads: The spread of SR05 - SR01 was - 108 (an increase of 5), SR09 - SR05 was 4 (a decrease of 6), and SR09 - SR01 was - 104 (a decrease of 1) [3]. - Import Profits: For Brazilian imports, with an ICE main contract price of 14.77, a premium of 0.20, and freight of 32.75, the in - quota price was 3965 yuan/ton, the out - of - quota price was 5035 yuan/ton, the spread with Liuzhou was 325 yuan/ton, with Rizhao was 380 yuan/ton, and with the futures price was 283 yuan/ton. For Thai imports, with an ICE main contract price of 14.77, a premium of 1.05, and freight of 18.00, the in - quota price was 4010 yuan/ton, the out - of - quota price was 5094 yuan/ton, the spread with Liuzhou was 266 yuan/ton, with Rizhao was 321 yuan/ton, and with the futures price was 224 yuan/ton [3]. 3.2 Market Judgment - Important Information: As of January 31, 2026, in the 2025/26 season, Guangxi had a cumulative sugarcane crushing volume of 3343.06 million tons (a year - on - year decrease of 309.71 million tons), sugar production of 402.90 million tons (a year - on - year decrease of 78.80 million tons), a sugar production rate of 12.05% (a year - on - year decrease of 1.14 percentage points), cumulative sugar sales of 155.06 million tons (a year - on - year decrease of 83.03 million tons), and a sales - to - production ratio of 38.49% (a year - on - year decrease of 10.94 percentage points). In January, the monthly sugar production was 208.71 million tons (a year - on - year increase of 2.15 million tons), monthly sugar sales were 66.58 million tons (a year - on - year decrease of 8.29 million tons), and industrial inventory was 247.84 million tons (a year - on - year increase of 4.23 million tons) [5]. - As of January 31, 2026, Yunnan had a cumulative sugarcane crushing volume of 814.47 million tons (compared to 678.24 million tons in the same period of the previous season), sugar production of 98.41 million tons (compared to 83.71 million tons in the same period of the previous season), a sugar production rate of 12.08% (compared to 12.34% in the same period of the previous season), and produced 1.15 million tons of alcohol (compared to 0.76 million tons in the same period of the previous season). The cumulative new sugar sales were 53.20 million tons (compared to 45.22 million tons last year), and the sales - to - production ratio was 54.06% (compared to 54.03% last year). In January, the monthly sugar production was 59.18 million tons (compared to 51.02 million tons last year), sugar sales were 25.06 million tons (compared to 18.51 million tons last year), industrial inventory was 45.21 million tons (compared to 38.48 million tons last year), and alcohol sales were 1.06 million tons (compared to 0.75 million tons last year) [6][7]. - As of the end of January 2026 in the 2025/26 season, 19 sugar mills in Guangdong had started production. The cumulative sugarcane crushing volume was 350.458 million tons (compared to 338.31 million tons last year), sugar production was 34.44 million tons (compared to 34.14 million tons last year), the sugar production rate was 9.827% (compared to 10.09% last year), sales were 20.57 million tons (compared to 28.93 million tons last year), inventory was 13.87 million tons (compared to 5.21 million tons last year), and the sales - to - production ratio was 59.73% (compared to 84.74% last year). In January, the monthly sugar production was 25.78 million tons (a year - on - year increase of 3.27 million tons), and sugar sales were 18.85 million tons (a year - on - year increase of 1.32 million tons) [7]. - Logical Analysis: Internationally, Brazil's sugarcane crushing is almost finished, and its exports have decreased. The market's focus has shifted to the Northern Hemisphere. India's production may increase more than expected, which has a negative impact on international sugar prices. However, sugar prices have rebounded after reaching previous lows. Domestically, sugar is in the peak pressing period, and production is likely to increase significantly, but the pressure on prices is expected to ease due to the rebound of international sugar prices and the easing of domestic macro - sentiment [8]. - Trading Strategies: For the unilateral strategy, international sugar prices are expected to fluctuate at the bottom, and the domestic Zhengzhou sugar May contract is also expected to do the same. For arbitrage and options, it is recommended to wait and see [9][10][11]. 3.3 Related Attachments - The report provides multiple figures, including monthly inventory and production in Guangxi and Yunnan, Liuzhou's spot sugar price, the spot price difference between Liuzhou and Kunming, the basis and spreads of different sugar futures contracts (such as 9 - month, 1 - month, 5 - month), etc., with data sources from Galaxy Futures and WIND [12][13][14]
白糖日报-20260204
Yin He Qi Huo·2026-02-04 09:08