钢材&铁矿石日报：黑色情绪回暖，钢矿震荡企稳-20260204

Report Industry Investment Rating - No information available in the provided content Core Viewpoints - The main contract price of rebar fluctuated higher with a daily increase of 0.13%, and both trading volume and open interest decreased. Currently, the supply pressure of rebar has increased, while the demand is weak. The fundamentals continue the seasonal weakness, and the steel price is under pressure in the off - season. The relatively positive factor is cost support. It is expected to continue the low - level oscillatory operation, and the inventory changes should be monitored [5]. - The main contract price of hot - rolled coil fluctuated higher with a daily increase of 0.18%, with trading volume decreasing and open interest increasing. At present, both supply and demand of hot - rolled coil remain at a high level, and the fundamentals are operating weakly. The relatively positive factor is cost support. It is expected that the price of hot - rolled coil will continue to oscillate, and it is necessary to guard against the intensification of industrial contradictions caused by weakening demand. Attention should be paid to the demand performance [5]. - The main contract price of iron ore fluctuated, with a daily decline of 0.32%, and both trading volume and open interest decreased. Currently, overseas supply has stabilized, and inventory is high, resulting in a large supply pressure of ore. Correspondingly, the ore demand is operating weakly, and the fundamentals of the ore market are not good. It is expected that the ore price will continue to be under pressure and operate weakly with oscillations. Attention should be paid to the restocking situation of steel mills [5]. Summary by Directory Industry Dynamics - In January, the subsidy policy for home appliance trade - in and the purchase of new digital and smart products showed effects. The sales volume of 6 types of home appliances and 4 types of digital and smart products exceeded 15 million units, with sales of nearly 59 billion yuan. 32 regions launched the subsidy policy, and 19 regions issued implementation rules. Home appliance trade - in reached 6.813 million units, driving sales of 29.71 billion yuan; the purchase of new digital and smart products was 9.115 million pieces, driving sales of 29.21 billion yuan [7]. - In January 2026, the heavy - truck market showed a trend of strong wholesale and weak retail. The wholesale sales of heavy trucks were about 1 million units, basically flat compared with December 2025 and a significant increase of about 39% compared with the same period last year [8]. - In December 2025, the procurement costs of various steel raw materials varied month - on - month, with little change. From January to December, the procurement costs of various varieties decreased significantly year - on - year, and the decline in fuel procurement costs was significantly greater than that of raw materials. The weighted average procurement cost converted to dry basis in December was 1,393.34 yuan/ton, a month - on - month increase of 1.21 yuan/ton or 0.09%. The cumulative average procurement cost from January to December was 1,279.86 yuan/ton, a year - on - year decrease of 481.03 yuan/ton or 27.32% [9]. Spot Market - Rebar: The spot price in Shanghai was 3,200 yuan/ton, in Tianjin was 3,160 yuan/ton, and the national average was 3,308 yuan/ton. - Hot - rolled coil: The spot price in Shanghai was 3,270 yuan/ton, in Tianjin was 3,160 yuan/ton, and the national average was 3,292 yuan/ton. - Tangshan steel billet: The price was 2,920 yuan/ton. - Zhangjiagang heavy scrap: The price was 2,160 yuan/ton. - PB powder (Shandong port): The price was 776 yuan/ton. - Tangshan iron concentrate powder (wet basis): The price was 772 yuan/ton. - Ocean freight (Australia): 8.89; (Brazil): 25.21. - SGX swap (current month): 101.75. - Iron ore price index (61% FE, CFR): 102.00 [10]. Futures Market - Rebar: The closing price of the active contract was 3,110 yuan/ton, with a daily increase of 0.13%. The trading volume was 614,090 lots, a decrease of 71,716 lots; the open interest was 1,798,227 lots, a decrease of 6,899 lots [14]. - Hot - rolled coil: The closing price of the active contract was 3,274 yuan/ton, with a daily increase of 0.18%. The trading volume was 285,185 lots, a decrease of 49,929 lots; the open interest was 1,482,712 lots, an increase of 5,482 lots [14]. - Iron ore: The closing price of the active contract was 781.5 yuan/ton, with a daily decrease of 0.32%. The trading volume was 240,530 lots, a decrease of 116,526 lots; the open interest was 515,657 lots, a decrease of 3,192 lots [14]. Related Charts - Steel Inventory: The report presents multiple charts showing the inventory of rebar and hot - rolled coil, including weekly changes and total inventory (steel mills + social inventory) [16]. - Iron Ore Inventory: Charts display the inventory of 45 ports in China, 247 steel mills, and domestic mine iron concentrate powder, along with their seasonal patterns and inventory changes [24]. - Steel Mill Production: Charts show the blast furnace operating rate, capacity utilization rate, profitability ratio of 247 sample steel mills, as well as the operating rate and profitability of 94 independent electric furnace steel mills [32]. 后市研判 (Future Outlook) - Rebar: The supply - demand pattern continues to weaken, and the inventory increase has expanded. The production of construction steel mills is stable. The weekly output of rebar increased slightly by 0.28 tons. Supply is running stably at a high level, but considering the approaching Spring Festival and the shutdown of short - process steel mills, supply is expected to decrease. Meanwhile, the demand for rebar continues to weaken, and the weekly apparent demand and high - frequency transactions have decreased. The weak - demand pattern in the off - season remains unchanged, which drags down the steel price. It is expected to continue the low - level oscillatory operation, and the inventory changes should be monitored [40]. - Hot - rolled coil: Both supply and demand have changed, and inventory depletion has narrowed. The production of plate steel mills is stable. The weekly output of hot - rolled coil increased by 3.80 tons, returning to a relatively high level, and the inventory level is high, so the supply pressure remains. The demand for hot - rolled coil shows some resilience, with a slight increase in weekly apparent demand, mainly due to the high output of downstream cold - rolled products. However, it is necessary to guard against the accumulation of contradictions, and the external demand for exports is average. The demand resilience needs to be tracked. It is expected that the price of hot - rolled coil will continue to oscillate, and it is necessary to guard against the intensification of industrial contradictions caused by weakening demand. Attention should be paid to the demand performance [40]. - Iron ore: The supply - demand pattern has changed little, and the inventory continues to rise. The production of steel mills is weakly stable, and the terminal consumption of ore is operating stably. The daily average pig iron output and imported ore daily consumption of sample steel mills decreased slightly last week. The contradictions in the off - season steel market are accumulating, and steel mills mainly conduct normal restocking before the festival, with limited positive effects. It is expected that the ore demand will continue the weak - operation trend. Meanwhile, the arrival of ore at domestic ports has rebounded from a low level, and the shipments of overseas miners have continued to increase. Overseas ore supply has stabilized, and domestic ore supply is stable. Coupled with high inventory, the ore supply pressure remains. It is expected that the ore price will continue to be under pressure and operate weakly with oscillations. Attention should be paid to the restocking situation of steel mills [41].