金信期货PTA乙二醇日刊-20260204

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The short - term price of PTA is expected to be volatile and bearish, and there is an inventory accumulation expectation in February. The short - term price of ethylene glycol is expected to continue to fluctuate at the bottom [3][4] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs PTA - Main Contract: On February 4, the PTA main futures contract TA605 rose 1.36%, and the basis strengthened to - 52 yuan/ton [2] - Fundamentals: The market price of PTA in East China was 5150 yuan/ton, up 65 yuan/ton from the previous trading day. The Brent crude oil on the cost side rebounded to around $67.5 per barrel. The PTA capacity utilization rate increased by 1.07 to 76.90% compared with the previous working day. The weekly inventory days of PTA factories were 3.58 days, a decrease of 0.04 days from last week [3] - Main Force Trends: The long - position main force increased positions [3] - Trend Expectation: As the Spring Festival holiday approaches, the terminal is about to have a holiday, the polyester production cut range is expanding, and the demand is weakening. There is an inventory accumulation expectation for PTA in February. Currently, the cost side has large disturbances, the crude oil trend fluctuates greatly, and PX is improving in the long - term. The short - term PTA price is regarded as volatile and bearish [3] MEG (Ethylene Glycol) - Main Contract: On February 4, the ethylene glycol main futures contract eg2605 rose 0.64%, and the basis strengthened to - 96 yuan/ton [4] - Fundamentals: The market price of ethylene glycol in East China was 3682 yuan/ton, up 25 yuan/ton from the previous trading day. The coal price rebounded. The total inventory of MEG in the main ports in East China was 82.2 tons, an increase of 10,000 tons from the previous period [4] - Main Force Trends: There are differences between long - and short - position main forces [4] - Trend Expectation: The comprehensive operating rate of ethylene glycol has decreased, but the port inventory is still accumulating, and there are still large - ship arrival plans in February, so the inventory accumulation expectation is difficult to reverse. The downstream polyester demand before the festival has significantly weakened, resulting in a supply - demand imbalance. Considering the previous trend, there is a certain support around 3600 yuan/ton. It is expected that the ethylene glycol price will continue to fluctuate at the bottom in the short term [4]