瑞达期货集运指数（欧线）期货日报-20260204

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - The freight index (European line) futures price first declined and then rose on Wednesday. The main contract EC2604 closed up 2.2%, and the far - month contracts had different gains from - 1% to 1%. The improvement of macro and commodity sentiment drove the futures price up [1]. - The latest SCFIS European line settlement freight rate index was 1792.14, down 67.17 points from last week, a 3.6% week - on - week decline [1]. - The cancellation of full tax - refund for photovoltaic products is expected to lead to a rush of shipments, boosting the long - term contract cargo volume. But after the trading sentiment stabilizes, the price increase brought by the news will be reversed, and the futures price will decline due to the weakening support from the spot end [1]. - China's foreign trade level rebounded unexpectedly in December 2026, with both imports and exports improving significantly, possibly related to the cancellation of VAT export tax - refund policies for some commodities and the pre - holiday rush of exports. China's exports are expected to maintain a high growth rate in 2026 [1]. - Maersk's freight rate quotes for weeks 7 - 9 decreased by 100 US dollars compared to week 6, and the price - cut pressure improved slightly. However, the quotes of other shipping companies such as COSCO and CMA continued to decline, and the trend of cutting prices to attract cargo before the holiday continued [1]. - The expectation of resuming navigation in the Red Sea has improved. The market is optimistic about the economic recovery of the eurozone, and inflation is approaching the target level, supporting the expectation that the European Central Bank will keep interest rates unchanged in the foreseeable future [1]. - The current freight rate market is greatly affected by seasonal demand. Investors are advised to be cautious, pay attention to the operation rhythm and risk control, and track geopolitical, shipping capacity and cargo volume data in a timely manner [1]. Group 3: Summary According to Related Contents Futures Market Data - EC main contract closing price: 1247.600, up 26.8; EC sub - main contract closing price: 1534, up 10.7 [1]. - EC2604 - EC2606 spread: - 286.40, up 9.40; EC2604 - EC2608 spread: - 357.00, up 3.00 [1]. - EC contract basis: 544.54, down 9.70 [1]. - EC main contract open interest: 32,761 hands, down 1468 hands [1]. Spot Market Data - SCFIS (European line) (weekly): 1792.14, down 67.17; SCFIS (US West line) (weekly): 1101.40, down 192.92 [1]. - SCFI (composite index) (weekly): 1316.75, down 141.11; Container shipping capacity (10,000 TEUs): 1227.97, up 0.06 [1]. - CCFI (composite index) (weekly): 1175.59, down 33.16; CCFI (European line) (weekly): 1574.69, down 13.50 [1]. - Baltic Dry Index (daily): 2028.00, up 96.00; Panamax Freight Index (daily): 1724.00, up 24.00 [1]. - Average charter price (Panamax ship): 0.00, unchanged; Average charter price (Capesize ship): 27,927.00, up 1913.00 [1]. Industry News - The US White House said that talks with Iran later this week will still be held as planned. Iran hopes to move the talks to Oman and hold them bilaterally, but has not responded yet [1]. - Federal Reserve Governor Milan said that the Fed needs to cut interest rates by more than 100 basis points this year. Richmond Fed President巴金 emphasized that monetary policy should remain cautious before inflation fully returns to the target [1]. - The first central No.1 document of the "14th Five - Year Plan" was released on February 3, aiming to promote rural revitalization and modernize agriculture [1]. Key Data to Watch - February 5, 15:45: France's December industrial output month - on - month rate [1]. - February 5, 18:00: Eurozone's December retail sales month - on - month rate [1]. - February 5, 20:00: UK's central bank interest rate decision as of February 5 [1]. - February 5, 21:15: Eurozone's European Central Bank deposit facility rate as of February 5 [1]. - February 5, 21:30: US initial jobless claims for the week ended January 31 (in 10,000 people) [1].