Ruida Futures(SZ:002961) Rui Da Qi Huo·2026-02-04 09:22Report Industry Investment Rating - There is no mention of the industry investment rating in the provided content. Core Viewpoints - The supply pressure in the domestic market is gradually increasing as the quantity of publicly inspected cotton has exceeded 7.2 million tons. The trading volume of imported cotton, mainly Brazilian cotton, has slowed down due to the approaching Spring Festival, with some textile enterprises entering the holiday mode. Considering the approaching long - holiday, it is advisable to wait and see in the short term [2]. Summary by Related Catalogs Futures Market - Zhengzhou cotton's main contract closing price is 14,680 yuan/ton, up 30 yuan; cotton futures' top 20 net positions are - 117,884 hands, up 8,739 hands; the main contract's cotton position is 716,331 hands, down 1,549 hands; cotton's warehouse receipt quantity is 10,438 sheets, up 38 sheets. The main contract closing price of cotton yarn is 20,595 yuan/ton, up 180 yuan; cotton yarn futures' top 20 net positions are - 1,374 hands, up 115 hands; the main contract's cotton yarn position is 8,752 hands, up 4,255 hands; cotton yarn's warehouse receipt quantity is 0 sheets [2]. Spot Market - The China Cotton Price Index (CCIndex:3128B) is 16,002 yuan/ton, up 15 yuan; the China Imported Cotton Price Index (FCIndexM:1% tariff) is 12,357 yuan/ton, down 10 yuan; the China Imported Cotton Price Index (FCIndexM: sliding - duty) is 13,584 yuan/ton, down 12 yuan. The China Yarn Price Index (pure - cotton carded yarn 32 - count) is 21,455 yuan/ton, unchanged; the arrival price of the imported cotton yarn price index (pure - cotton carded yarn 32 - count) is 21,070 yuan/ton, down 4 yuan; the arrival price of the imported cotton yarn price index (pure - cotton combed yarn 32 - count) is 22,636 yuan/ton, down 5 yuan [2]. Upstream Situation - The national cotton sowing area is 2,838.3 thousand hectares, up 48.3 thousand hectares; the national cotton output is 6.16 million tons, up 0.54 million tons. The cotton - yarn price difference is 5,453 yuan/ton, down 15 yuan; the national industrial inventory of cotton is 848,000 tons, down 2,000 tons [2]. Industry Situation - The monthly import quantity of cotton is 180,000 tons, up 60,000 tons; the monthly import quantity of cotton yarn is 170,000 tons, up 20,000 tons. The daily import cotton profit is 2,418 yuan/ton, up 27 yuan; the national commercial inventory of cotton is 5.7847 million tons, up 1.1011 million tons [2]. Downstream Situation - The inventory days of yarn are 25.12 days, down 1.21 days; the inventory days of grey cloth are 33.76 days, up 1.42 days. The monthly output of cloth is 3.01 billion meters, up 0.2 billion meters; the monthly output of yarn is 2.132 million tons, up 93,000 tons. The monthly export value of clothing and clothing accessories is 134,124,120,000 US dollars, up 18,187,260,000 US dollars; the monthly export value of textile yarns, fabrics and products is 125,796,030,000 US dollars, up 3,038,700,000 US dollars [2]. Option Market - The implied volatility of cotton at - the - money call options is 14.21%, up 0.64%; the implied volatility of cotton at - the - money put options is 14.2%, up 0.63%. The 20 - day historical volatility of cotton is 16.26%, down 0.66%; the 60 - day historical volatility of cotton is 11.45%, up 0.01% [2]. Industry News - As of the week of January 31, 2026, the planting rate of Brazil's 2025/26 cotton is 78.6%, up 18 percentage points from the previous week. Brazil's cotton planting progress is faster than the same period of last year and the average of the past five years. The ICE cotton futures fell on Tuesday, but the decline was limited, supported by the falling US dollar, and the market focused on the upcoming data guidance. The ICE March cotton futures contract closed down 0.50 cents, or 0.80%, at 62.31 cents per pound [2]. Inventory Situation - As of January 29, the inventory of imported cotton at major ports increased by 4.25% week - on - week, with a total inventory of 495,400 tons. Among them, the inventory at ports and surrounding warehouses in Shandong (Qingdao, Jinan) is 413,000 tons, down 2.93% year - on - year; the inventory at Zhangjiagang Port and surrounding warehouses in Jiangsu is about 35,000 tons, and the inventory at other ports is about 29,400 tons [2].