瑞达期货铝类产业日报-20260204

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - For alumina, the fundamentals may be in a stage of slightly reduced supply and stable demand. It is recommended to conduct light - position oscillating trading and control the rhythm and trading risks [2]. - For electrolytic aluminum, the fundamentals may be in a stage of stable supply and weak demand. The option market sentiment is bullish. It is recommended to conduct light - position short - long trading at low prices and control the rhythm and trading risks [2]. - For cast aluminum alloy, the fundamentals may be in a stage of excessive supply and weak demand. The scrap aluminum supports the cast aluminum price from the cost side. It is recommended to conduct light - position short - long trading at low prices and control the rhythm and trading risks [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - Aluminum Futures: The closing price of the Shanghai Aluminum main contract is 23,955 yuan/ton, down 155 yuan; the main - second - consecutive contract spread is +145 yuan; the main contract holding volume is 224,756 lots, down 1,885 lots; the net holding of the top 20 in Shanghai Aluminum is - 57,018 lots, up 22,089 lots; the Shanghai - London ratio is 7.73, down 0.06; the Shanghai Aluminum inventory on the Shanghai Futures Exchange is 216,771 tons, up 19,718 tons; the Shanghai Aluminum warehouse receipt is 150,289 tons, down 423 tons [2]. - Alumina Futures: The closing price of the alumina futures main contract is 2,824 yuan/ton, up 10 yuan; the main - second - consecutive contract spread is - 195 yuan, up 15 yuan; the main contract holding volume is 375,698 lots, down 1,256 lots; the alumina inventory is 265,223 tons, up 42,736 tons [2]. - Cast Aluminum Alloy Futures: The closing price of the cast aluminum alloy main contract is 22,595 yuan/ton, down 125 yuan; the main - second - consecutive contract spread is +380 yuan; the main contract holding volume is 4,530 lots, down 293 lots; the registered warehouse receipt on the Shanghai Futures Exchange is 66,791 tons, down 122 tons; the inventory on the Shanghai Futures Exchange is 74,068 tons, up 1,635 tons [2]. - LME Aluminum: The three - month quotation of LME electrolytic aluminum is 3,099 US dollars/ton, up 42.5 US dollars; the LME aluminum inventory is 495,175 tons, down 2,000 tons; the LME aluminum cancelled warehouse receipt is 54,525 tons, unchanged; the LME aluminum premium/discount is - 22.99 US dollars/ton, down 0.67 US dollars [2]. 3.2 Spot Market - Aluminum Spot: The price of Shanghai Non - ferrous A00 aluminum is 23,760 yuan/ton, up 470 yuan; the price of Yangtze River Non - ferrous Market AOO aluminum is 23,270 yuan/ton, down 230 yuan; the Shanghai Wumao aluminum premium/discount is - 200 yuan/ton, up 20 yuan; the basis of electrolytic aluminum is - 195 yuan, up 325 yuan [2]. - Alumina Spot: The spot price of alumina in Shanghai Non - ferrous is 2,555 yuan/ton, unchanged; the basis of alumina is - 269 yuan, down 15 yuan [2]. - Cast Aluminum Alloy Spot: The average price of ADC12 aluminum alloy ingots in the country is 23,800 yuan/ton; the basis of cast aluminum alloy is 1,205 yuan, up 150 yuan [2]. 3.3 Upstream Situation - Alumina: The monthly output is 801.08 tons, down 12.72 tons; the national alumina start - up rate is 83.49%, down 0.87%; the total alumina capacity utilization rate is 85%, down 1.51%; the demand for alumina (electrolytic aluminum part) is 731.29 tons, up 25.33 tons; the supply - demand balance of alumina is 28.9 tons, up 2.32 tons; the export volume of alumina is 21 tons, up 4 tons; the import volume of alumina is 22.78 tons, down 0.46 tons [2]. - Aluminum Scrap: The average price of crushed raw aluminum in Foshan metal waste is 17,850 yuan/ton, down 350 yuan; the average price of crushed raw aluminum in Shandong metal waste is 17,500 yuan/ton, down 350 yuan; the import volume of aluminum waste and scraps in China is 194,102.07 tons, up 31,482.14 tons; the export volume of aluminum waste and scraps in China is 70.8 tons, down 0.73 tons [2]. 3.4 Industry Situation - Electrolytic Aluminum: The import volume of primary aluminum is 189,196.58 tons, up 43,086.86 tons; the export volume of primary aluminum is 37,575.3 tons, down 15,472.39 tons; the total electrolytic aluminum production capacity is 4,536.2 tons, up 12 tons; the electrolytic aluminum start - up rate is 98.31%, up 0.1%; the electrolytic aluminum social inventory is 77.2 tons, up 3 tons [2]. - Aluminum Products: The monthly output of aluminum products is 613.56 tons, up 20.46 tons; the export volume of unwrought aluminum and aluminum products is 54 tons, down 3 tons [2]. - Recycled Aluminum Alloy Ingot: The monthly output is 68.4 tons, down 1.6 tons; the total built - in production capacity is 126 tons, unchanged; the export volume of aluminum alloy is 2.55 tons, down 0.51 tons [2]. 3.5 Downstream and Application - Automobile: The monthly automobile output is 341.15 vehicles, down 10.75 vehicles [2]. - Real Estate: The national real estate climate index is 91.45, down 0.44 [2]. 3.6 Option Situation - The historical volatility of Shanghai Aluminum for 20 days is 40.23%, up 0.08%; the historical volatility for 40 days is 31.31%, unchanged; the implied volatility of the at - the - money option of Shanghai Aluminum main contract is 26.17%, down 0.0259%; the call - put ratio of Shanghai Aluminum options is 1.9, up 0.0587 [2]. 3.7 Industry News - 30 provinces in China have determined their GDP growth targets for 2026, with many large economic provinces setting the target above 5%. Shanghai aims for a GDP growth of about 5% in 2026 and will accelerate the implementation of major industrial projects in fields such as integrated circuits and artificial intelligence [2]. - In January, the sales volume of 6 types of household appliances and 4 types of digital and smart products exceeded 15 million units, with sales of nearly 59 billion yuan. The offline sales of household appliance trade - in and digital and smart product purchases accounted for nearly 80%, with a year - on - year increase of about 20% [2]. - Federal Reserve officials have different views on interest rate cuts. They believe that interest rate cuts support the employment market, and the task of combating inflation is almost completed. In the long run, they hope to reduce the scale of the Federal Reserve's balance sheet [2]. - The Central No. 1 Document was released, aiming to expand rural consumption, support the consumption of new energy vehicles, smart home appliances, and green building materials in rural areas, and improve the recycling system of rural waste [2].