瑞达期货国债期货日报-20260204

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided 2. Core Viewpoints - Recent fluctuations in the equity market may drive a short - term decline in risk appetite, reducing the pressure of capital diversion from the bond market. The return of the January PMI to the contraction range indicates a continued weak economic recovery. In February, the capital market faces pressure from government bond supply and cash withdrawals by residents during the festival. The central bank is expected to continuously inject medium - and long - term liquidity through outright reverse repurchases and MLF, and the urgency of a short - term reserve requirement ratio cut is not high. In the context of limited external shocks and the interweaving of internal sentiment and fundamentals, the bond market may return to a volatile pattern after a short - term recovery [4] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market Data - Futures Closing Prices and Volumes: T, TF, TS, and TL主力合约收盘价分别为108.240、105.850、102.398、111.700，较前一日分别下跌0.01%、0.04%、0.02%、0.23%；成交量分别为68372、71875、35831、75582，较前一日分别减少6023、增加3421、减少883、减少21790 [2] - Futures Spreads: Various futures spreads showed different changes, such as the TL2603 - 2606 spread increased by 0.00 to - 0.14, and the T2603 - 2606 spread decreased by 0.03 to 0.01 [2] - Futures Positions: T、TF、TS、TL主力持仓量分别为245026、122856、61284、125098，较前一日分别减少8950、11291、714、2215；前20名多头和空头持仓及净空仓也有相应变化 [2] 3.2 Bond Market Data - CTD Net Prices: The net prices of several CTD bonds decreased, such as 250018.IB (6y) decreased by 0.0221 to 100.5861 [2] - Active Bond Yields: The yields of 1y, 3y, 5y, 7y, 10y active bonds were 1.2951%, 1.3825%, 1.5650%, 1.6810%, 1.8060% respectively, with changes of + 0.01bp, - 1.25bp, - 0.75bp, - 0.65bp, - 0.40bp [2] - Short - term Interest Rates: Silver - pledged overnight and Shibor overnight rates increased by 1.22bp and 0.10bp respectively; silver - pledged 7 - day and Shibor 7 - day rates decreased by 3.61bp and 1.50bp respectively; silver - pledged 14 - day and Shibor 14 - day rates increased by 1.73bp and 7.20bp respectively [2] - LPR Rates: The 1y and 5y LPR rates remained unchanged at 3.00% and 3.5% respectively [2] 3.3 Public Market Operations - On February 4, the central bank carried out an 800 - billion - yuan 3 - month outright reverse repurchase operation, with an additional 100 - billion - yuan roll - over, the first additional roll - over in nearly four months. After the operation, a net injection of 100 billion yuan was achieved as 700 billion yuan of 91 - day outright reverse repurchases matured on February 4. The central bank also disclosed that the net injection of the public market treasury bond trading in January was 100 billion yuan [2] 3.4 Industry News - On February 3, the No. 1 Central Document for this year was officially released. On February 4, the Central Financial and Economic Affairs Office interpreted the key contents. The document defined "four key tasks", including enhancing agricultural comprehensive production capacity and quality - efficiency, implementing normalized and precise assistance, promoting stable income growth of farmers, and building livable and business - friendly beautiful villages. It aims to ensure a stable grain output of about 1.4 trillion catties [3] - The People's Bank of China held the 2026 credit market work meeting, requiring the development of science and technology finance, green finance, inclusive finance, pension finance, and digital finance, strengthening financial support in the consumption field, building a multi - level financial service system, and continuing to support the resolution of debt risks of financing platforms and the market - oriented transformation of local government financing platforms [3] 3.5 Market Conditions and Outlook - On Wednesday, the yields of treasury bond cash bonds fluctuated within a narrow range, and the yields of 10Y and 30Y bonds increased by about 0.1bp and 0.2bp to 1.81% and 2.25% respectively. Treasury bond futures weakened across the board, with TS, TF, T, and TL main contracts falling by 0.02%, 0.04%, 0.01%, and 0.23% respectively. The weighted average DR007 rate fell to around 1.49%. The US 1 - month ISM manufacturing PMI rebounded to 52.6, and the market's expectation of the Fed's interest rate cut in the short term cooled [4] 3.6 Key Points to Watch - February 5, 21:15, European Central Bank interest rate decision; February 6, 21:30, US January non - farm payroll data [4]