瑞达期货沪镍产业日报-20260204

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content Group 2: Core Viewpoints - The report predicts that Shanghai nickel will experience short - term oscillatory adjustments, and investors should focus on the range of 130,000 - 140,000 yuan/ton [3] Group 3: Summary by Directory Futures Market - The closing price of the futures main contract of Shanghai nickel is 137,680 yuan/ton, with a week - on - week increase of 2,850 yuan/ton; the spread between the 03 - 04 contracts of Shanghai nickel is - 280 yuan/ton, with a week - on - week increase of 20 yuan/ton [3] - The price of LME 3 - month nickel is 17,395 US dollars/ton, with a week - on - week increase of 350 US dollars/ton; the main contract position of Shanghai nickel is 99,453 lots, with a week - on - week decrease of 2,047 lots [3] - The net long position of the top 20 futures holders of Shanghai nickel is - 44,525 lots, with a week - on - week increase of 1,910 lots; the LME nickel inventory is 285,528 tons, with no change [3] - The inventory of nickel in the Shanghai Futures Exchange is 55,396 tons, with a week - on - week increase of 4,602 tons; the cancelled warrants of LME nickel total 11,148 tons, with a week - on - week increase of 456 tons [3] - The warrant quantity of Shanghai nickel is 48,072 tons, with a week - on - week decrease of 108 tons [3] Spot Market - The spot price of SMM 1 nickel is 141,600 yuan/ton, with a week - on - week increase of 2,550 yuan/ton; the average spot price of 1 nickel plate in the Yangtze River is 141,800 yuan/ton, with a week - on - week increase of 2,650 yuan/ton [3] - The CIF (bill of lading) price of Shanghai electrolytic nickel is 210 US dollars/ton, with no change; the bonded warehouse (warrant) price of Shanghai electrolytic nickel is 210 US dollars/ton [3] - The average price of battery - grade nickel sulfate is 33,750 yuan/ton, with no change; the basis of the NI main contract is 3,920 yuan/ton, with a week - on - week decrease of 300 yuan/ton [3] - The LME nickel (spot/3 - month) premium is - 216.92 US dollars/ton, with a week - on - week increase of 1.81 US dollars/ton [3] Upstream Situation - The import volume of nickel ore is 1.9928 million tons, with a month - on - month decrease of 1.3467 million tons; the total port inventory of nickel ore is 11.7234 million tons, with a week - on - week decrease of 0.5628 million tons [3] - The average import unit price of nickel ore is 75.53 US dollars/ton, with a month - on - month increase of 3.36 US dollars/ton; the tax - included price of Indonesian laterite nickel ore with 1.8% Ni is 41.71 US dollars/wet ton, with no change [3] Industry Situation - The monthly output of electrolytic nickel is 29,430 tons, with a month - on - month increase of 1,120 tons; the total monthly output of ferronickel is 21,400 metal tons, with a month - on - month decrease of 700 metal tons [3] - The import volume of refined nickel and alloys is 23,861.23 tons, with a month - on - month increase of 11,020.74 tons; the import volume of ferronickel is 996,100 tons, with a month - on - month increase of 100,700 tons [3] Downstream Situation - The monthly output of 300 - series stainless steel is 1.7472 million tons, with a month - on - month decrease of 14,500 tons; the total weekly inventory of 300 - series stainless steel is 549,000 tons, with a week - on - week increase of 9,700 tons [3] Industry News - The Communist Party of China Central Committee and the State Council issued an opinion on anchoring agricultural and rural modernization and promoting all - round rural revitalization, aiming to stabilize grain output at about 1.4 trillion catties and promote the combination of artificial intelligence and agricultural development [3] - Federal Reserve Governor Milan said that more than 100 basis points of interest rate cuts are needed this year, and he is looking forward to Wash's performance. He believes that potential inflation is not a problem and there is not much strong price pressure in the economy [3] - The US House of Representatives approved a government financing bill to end the partial shutdown. The Philippines has entered the rainy season, leading to a decline in nickel ore imports. Indonesia plans to significantly reduce the RKAB quota to 250 - 260 million tons next year, but the quota for the first quarter will be postponed, and the raw material contraction is expected to be felt in the second quarter [3] Key Points of Attention - There is no news today [3]