供应压力较大,价格整体下行
Yin He Qi Huo·2026-02-04 09:41
  1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The current supply pressure of live pigs is relatively high, and the overall price is declining. Although the scale enterprises' slaughter volume has decreased, it is still relatively high. The slaughter volume of ordinary farmers remains normal, and the number of secondary fattening entries has decreased. The supply pressure may improve, but the overall supply is still relatively sufficient, and the later supply pressure may still be obvious. The overall direction of the live pig spot market is expected to be downward, and the pig price still has a certain downward pressure. The live pig futures price showed a slight increase today, with obvious support in the far - month futures market. In the near - term market, the slaughter pressure of live pigs may continue, but there may be certain support on the spot side, and the deep - decline space is limited. In the medium - term, the overall direction of the spot market will still be downward, and the futures market may show certain support [1][3] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Spot Price - Today, the live pig prices across the country showed a downward trend. The average price was 11.74 yuan/kg, a decrease of 0.28 yuan/kg compared with yesterday. The prices in various regions all declined, with the largest decline of 0.51 yuan/kg in Zhejiang and Jiangxi, and the smallest decline of 0.09 yuan/kg in Sichuan [1] 3.2 Futures Price - The live pig futures prices showed a slight increase today. For example, LH01 increased by 100 to 13355, LH07 increased by 125 to 12295, LH09 increased by 155 to 13210, and LH11 increased by 170 to 13130 [1] 3.3 Sow/Piglet Price - The piglet price was 366 yuan, a decrease of 1 yuan compared with last week; the sow price was 1557 yuan, unchanged from last week [1] 3.4 Contract Spread - LH7 - 9 was - 915, a decrease of 30 compared with yesterday; LH9 - 1 was - 145, an increase of 55 compared with yesterday; LH9 - 11 was 8, an increase of 8 compared with yesterday; LH11 - 1 was - 225, an increase of 70 compared with yesterday [1] 3.5 Slaughter End - The slaughter volume was 190958 heads, a decrease of 816 compared with yesterday [1] 3.6 Size Pig Spread - The spread between standard pigs and medium - sized pigs was 0.69, an increase of 0.01 compared with yesterday; the spread between medium - large pigs and standard pigs was 0.25, a decrease of 0.04 compared with yesterday; the spread between large pigs and medium - large pigs was 0.83, an increase of 0.08 compared with yesterday; the spread between large pigs and standard pigs was 1.08, an increase of 0.04 compared with yesterday [1] 3.7 Trading Strategy - Unilateral: It is recommended to reduce and exit the long positions of the 05 contract. - Arbitrage: Wait and see. - Options: Sell the wide - straddle strategy [4]