螺纹热卷日报-20260204

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The steel futures market maintained a slightly stronger oscillating trend today, with the black - metal sector rebounding as a whole. However, the overall spot trading volume was generally weak, showing a slight improvement compared to yesterday [6]. - Last week, the production of the five major steel products accelerated, with the production of hot - rolled coils increasing faster than that of rebar. The total steel inventory accelerated the process of inventory accumulation, with rebar seeing inventory accumulation while hot - rolled coils were still in the process of destocking. The overall social inventory pressure was greater than the factory inventory [6]. - Recently, as the weather has turned cold, downstream construction sites have gradually shut down, leading to a decline in building material demand. Although steel exports have declined recently, there is still a demand for pre - holiday restocking in the manufacturing industry. The demand for hot - rolled coils is still increasing, performing better than the same period last year, and the pre - holiday demand is acceptable. For raw materials, there is still a rigid demand for restocking by steel mills, providing cost support [6]. - In February, steel mills will start production suspension and maintenance. The fundamental logic may gradually shift from restocking to winter storage. The winter demand will decline marginally, and the inventory will continue to accumulate, which also limits the further upward space of steel prices. It is expected that steel prices will lack fundamental drivers before the holiday and will continue to oscillate within a range following macro - economic sentiment. Overall, steel prices will still face pressure after the holiday [6]. - Today, there were market rumors that the Indonesian government proposed a large - scale production cut plan. Currently, Indonesian coal mines have suspended their export plans, driving up the prices of coking coal and coke, and the short - term market sentiment is strong. In the future, continue to pay attention to coal mine safety inspections, overseas tariffs, and domestic macro - economic and industrial policies [6]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Information 3.1.1 Rebar - Futures: RB05 was priced at 3110 yuan/ton, up 11 yuan from yesterday; RB10 was 3160 yuan/ton, up 9 yuan; RB01 was 3182 yuan/ton, up 9 yuan. The spreads between different contracts also changed, such as RB01 - RB05 narrowing by 2 yuan to 81 yuan, and RB05 - RB10 widening by 2 yuan to - 50 yuan. The rebar profit on the futures market for the 05, 10, and 01 contracts all decreased, with the 05 - contract profit dropping by 20 yuan to - 168 yuan, the 10 - contract profit down 20 yuan to - 118 yuan, and the 01 - contract profit down 16 yuan to - 106 yuan [2]. - Spot: The prices of rebar in different regions remained mostly unchanged, with only the price of Tangshan Tanggang rebar dropping by 10 yuan to 3060 yuan/ton. The basis of the 05, 10, and 01 contracts in different regions also varied. The profit of rebar in different regions also changed, with the profit of Shandong rebar dropping by 106 yuan to - 430 yuan, and the profit of Tangshan rebar dropping by 8 yuan to - 306 yuan [2]. 3.1.2 Hot - Rolled Coils - Futures: HC05 was priced at 3274 yuan/ton, up 9 yuan from yesterday; HC10 was 3296 yuan/ton, up 10 yuan; HC01 was 3323 yuan/ton, up 13 yuan. The spreads between different contracts also changed, such as HC01 - HC05 widening by 4 yuan to 49 yuan, and HC05 - HC10 narrowing by 1 yuan to - 22 yuan. The hot - rolled coil profit on the futures market for the 05, 10, and 01 contracts all decreased, with the 05 - contract profit dropping by 22 yuan to - 18 yuan, the 10 - contract profit down 19 yuan to 18 yuan, and the 01 - contract profit down 12 yuan to 26 yuan [2]. - Spot: The prices of hot - rolled coils in different regions remained unchanged. The basis of the 05, 10, and 01 contracts in different regions also varied. The profit of hot - rolled coils in different regions also changed, with the profit of Tianjin hot - rolled coils increasing by 1 yuan to - 385 yuan, and the profit of East China hot - rolled coils dropping by 1 yuan to - 176 yuan [2]. 3.2 Market Analysis 3.2.1 Related Prices - The spot price of Shanghai Zhongtian rebar was 3200 yuan (unchanged), Beijing Jingye rebar was 3130 yuan (down 10 yuan), Shanghai Angang hot - rolled coil was 3260 yuan (unchanged), and Tianjin Hegang hot - rolled coil was 3160 yuan (unchanged) [5]. 3.2.2 Trading Strategies - Unilateral: Before the holiday, follow the trend of coking coal and coke and maintain a slightly stronger oscillating trend [7]. - Arbitrage: It is recommended to short the hot - rolled coil to coking coal ratio at high prices, and continue to hold the short position of the hot - rolled coil to rebar spread [7]. - Options: It is recommended to wait and see [8]. 3.2.3 Important Information - As of February 3, the capital availability rate of sample construction sites was 60.27%, a week - on - week increase of 0.59 percentage points. Among them, the capital availability rate of non - housing construction projects was 61.18%, a week - on - week increase of 0.54 percentage points; the capital availability rate of housing construction projects was 55.71%, a week - on - week increase of 0.72 percentage points [9]. - Indonesian mining officials said on Tuesday that due to the Indonesian government's proposed large - scale production cut plan, Indonesian miners have suspended spot coal exports. The production quota issued by the Indonesian government to major miners last month was 40% - 70% lower than the 2025 level as part of the plan to boost coal prices. The main industry associations in Indonesia oppose this move, warning that it may lead to layoffs and mine closures. In early January 2026, the Minister of Energy and Mineral Resources of Indonesia said that the Indonesian government may cut the coal production quota in 2026 to about 600 million tons. At the same time, Indonesia also plans to impose a tariff on coal exports in 2026 [10]. 3.3 Related Attachments - The report provides multiple charts, including the basis, spreads, and profits of rebar and hot - rolled coils for different contracts, as well as the cash profits of different steel products in different regions and the cost of electric furnaces in East China [15][17][21].