供应压力较大，盘面整体下行

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core View of the Report - The overall supply of the meal market is under pressure, and the prices are generally declining. The international soybean market is in a relatively loose supply - demand situation, and prices may face pressure. The domestic spot supply of soybean meal has tightened, while the demand for rapeseed meal has weakened. The trading strategy suggests a bearish view for single - side trading, expanding the MRM spread for arbitrage, and selling a wide - straddle strategy for options [1][3][4][7][8] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Review - The US soybean market is oscillating. The US biodiesel policy has improved demand, but the impact is limited. South American market quotes are slightly down, and US soybean price decline supports the Brazilian quotes. The domestic soybean meal market is at a low level. Concerns about future arrivals have decreased, increasing the downward pressure. Rapeseed meal also shows downward pressure, with a larger decline than soybean meal. The soybean - rapeseed meal spread is expanding, and the near - month spreads of both are decreasing [3] 3.2 Fundamental Analysis International Market - US soybean carry - over stocks are raised to 350 million bushels, higher than the market forecast of 292 million bushels, mainly due to increased planting area. Quarterly grain inventory data is also bearish. Although US soybean exports have improved, the supply - demand situation is still loose. In South America, Brazilian new - crop soybeans are growing well, and exports are expected to increase. Brazilian old - crop soybeans have good export and crushing performance. Argentine old - crop soybean production is large, and the pressure on exports and crushing has eased [4] Domestic Market - The domestic spot supply of soybean meal has tightened. Oil mill operating rates are increasing but at a slower pace.提货量 has decreased slightly, and inventory is declining. Market transactions have increased significantly. As of January 30, the actual soybean crushing volume is 2.2961 million tons, the operating rate is 63.16%, soybean inventory is 6.355 million tons, a decrease of 3.56% from last week and an increase of 44.77% year - on - year. Soybean meal inventory is 930,400 tons, an increase of 3.54% from last week and 3.54% year - on - year. The demand for rapeseed meal is gradually weakening. Oil mill operating rates have increased, but rapeseed supply is low, and granular rapeseed meal inventory is still high, so there is supply pressure. As of January 30, coastal oil mill rapeseed inventory is 58,000 tons, a decrease of 2,000 tons from last week, and rapeseed meal inventory is 1,000 tons, an increase of 1,000 tons from last week [6] 3.3 Logic Analysis - The positive impact of the US biodiesel policy on soybean crushing is limited, and further upward momentum for US soybeans is weak. The recent rise in the US dollar index may not be sustainable. International market uncertainties mainly come from weather. In the domestic market, future soybean arrivals are expected to decrease, and the supply is uncertain. The spot market provides some support, but the upside for the futures market is limited. Rapeseed meal also faces downward pressure. As imports increase, the supply will improve. The demand for rapeseed meal may improve with the tightening of soybean meal supply, and the soybean - rapeseed meal spread will expand. The near - month spreads of both soybean meal and rapeseed meal are decreasing [7] 3.4 Trading Strategies - Single - side trading: Adopt a bearish view - Arbitrage: Expand the MRM spread - Options: Sell a wide - straddle strategy [8] 3.5 Soybean Pressing Profit - The pressing profit data from different sources (Argentina and Brazil) and different shipping dates are provided, showing the changes in pressing profit compared with the previous day [9]