月度策略：温和修复中的震荡蓄势-20260204

Market Review - The A-share market showed strong performance in January, with major indices rising significantly: the Shanghai Composite Index increased by 3.76%, the Shenzhen Component Index by 5.03%, and the ChiNext Index by 4.47%. The North Star 50 and Sci-Tech 50 led the gains with increases of 6.33% and 12.29% respectively, indicating a continued focus on small-cap growth stocks and a resonance between growth and value [6][9][10] - In the industry performance, sectors such as non-ferrous metals, media, oil and petrochemicals, chemicals, and building materials saw the highest gains, while traditional financial sectors like banks experienced notable pullbacks. The market theme shifted rapidly, with strong performance in resource sectors and AI applications [9][10] Macro Data - The manufacturing PMI for January 2026 fell to 49.3%, indicating a return to contraction. The new orders index dropped to 49.2%, reflecting weak domestic demand. Supply remains in expansion territory but is declining, with the production index at 50.6% [20][22][23] - Fixed asset investment in December 2025 continued to decline, with real estate development investment growth dropping to -17.2%. Consumer retail sales growth was only 3.7%, indicating weak consumer sentiment. However, exports showed a positive performance with a growth of 6.6% [26][28][33] - CPI and PPI both showed upward trends, with CPI rising by 0.8% year-on-year and core CPI reaching 1.2%. PPI was at -1.9%, indicating improved supply-demand dynamics in industrial products [33][34][40] Monthly Configuration Recommendations - The report suggests a balanced strategy for investment: - Focus on technology sectors such as electrical equipment and software services for the long term - Look for opportunities in the chemical industry driven by rising raw material prices - Invest in the construction and building materials sector, benefiting from urban renewal policies - Allocate to high-dividend defensive assets like coal [54][55]