GF SECURITIES·2026-02-04 09:47Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Buy" with a previous rating of "Buy" as well [5]. Core Views - The report forecasts a social financing growth rate of 8.3% for January 2026, with an expected increase in RMB loans of CNY 5.34 trillion, which is a year-on-year increase of CNY 0.12 trillion. The total social financing increment is projected to be CNY 7.55 trillion, a year-on-year increase of CNY 0.49 trillion. By the end of January, the social financing stock is expected to reach CNY 449.5 trillion, with a year-on-year growth rate of 8.25%, reflecting a slight month-on-month decline of 0.02 percentage points [5][8]. Summary by Sections Credit Outlook - The report anticipates a strong demand for corporate credit, with a significant year-on-year increase expected. Retail loans are projected to remain stable, supported by a recovering second-hand housing market in core cities and extended personal consumption loan interest subsidies until the end of 2026. The expected monthly increment of RMB loans in January is CNY 5.34 trillion, with a notable increase in loans directed towards the real economy, amounting to CNY 6.1 trillion, a year-on-year increase of CNY 0.4 trillion [5][8]. Bond Market - Government and credit bond net financing is expected to rebound significantly in January, with government bond net financing projected at CNY 1.2 trillion, a year-on-year increase of CNY 0.49 trillion. Credit bond financing is expected to reach CNY 0.50 trillion, a year-on-year increase of CNY 0.05 trillion [5][8]. Monetary Growth - The report predicts that M1 and M2 growth rates will remain relatively high, with M2 growth expected to rise by 0.3 percentage points to approximately 8.8%, and M1 growth expected to increase by 0.2 percentage points to around 4.0%. This is attributed to delayed cash withdrawal effects from the late Lunar New Year and increased government bond net financing [5][8].